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What Is the Appropriate Rate of Disinflation to Be Targeted in the Czech Economy?

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  • Lavan Mahadeva
  • Katerina Smidkova

Abstract

What is the optimal rate of disinflation to be targeted during transition? This question has attracted more attention under the inflation-targeting regime than under other monetary strategies, because explicit inflation targets are used to anchor expectations. These targets signal what rate of disinflation is targeted by policymakers. Deciding what level of disinflation is least costly in terms of the volatility of important economic variables is not straightforward, since costs depend on monetary transmission in a given economy. In this paper, a small, aggregate, forward-looking model of Czech monetary transmission is used to compare the consequences of different disinflation strategies that are approximated with alternative policy rules. Our results suggest that trajectories with a more linear tendency are superior to trajectories that postpone disinflation or reduce inflation suddenly.
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Suggested Citation

  • Lavan Mahadeva & Katerina Smidkova, 2001. "What Is the Appropriate Rate of Disinflation to Be Targeted in the Czech Economy?," Archive of Monetary Policy Division Working Papers 2001/33, Czech National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:mpaper:2001/33
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
    2. Erceg, C.J. & Henderson, D.W. & Levin, A.T., 1998. "Tradeoffs Between Inflation and Output-Gap Variances in an Optimizing-Agent Model," Papers 650, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    3. Thomas J. Sargent, 1982. "The Ends of Four Big Inflations," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 41-98, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
    5. Nicoletta Batini & Andrew Haldane, 1999. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 157-202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. DiNardo, J. & Moore, M.P., 1999. "The Phillips Curve is Back? Using Panel Data to Analyze the Relationship Between Unemployment and Inflation in an Open Economy," Papers 99-00-04, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
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    Cited by:

    1. Viktor Kotlán & David Navrátil, 2003. "Inflation Targeting as a Stabilization Tool: Its Design and Performance in the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 53(5-6), pages 220-242, May.
    2. Kateøina Šmídková & Aleš Bulíø, 2007. "Striving to Be “Clearly Open” and “Crystal Clear”: Monetary Policy Communication of the CNB," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(11-12), pages 540-557, December.

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