Estimating Output Gap for the Turkish Economy
This paper presents a time-varying parameter methodology for constructing an estimate of output gap for Turkey. We employ the extended Kalman filter technique in a multivariate setting in which economic content is utilized by the inclusion of inflation and output gap dynamics. As a by-product, we characterize time varying nature of output gap and inflation dynamics. Several results emerge: First, we show that estimating the potential output and output gap in a multivariate setting has several advantages over univariate techniques such as the HP filter. Second, our output gap estimates confirm the historical boom-bust cycles in Turkey and point out that business cycle displays sharp turning points rather than exhibiting a smooth pattern. Third, output gap seems to have contributed dramatically to the disinflation process in 2002-2004. Fourth, estimated time varying parameters suggest that, recently, the relation between real interest rates and the output gap seems to have been converging to a more conventional one. What is more, relative impact of output gap on inflation dynamics has been rising since 2001. Putting aside the “fiscal dominance” argument, these latter findings bode well for the effectiveness of the monetary policy within the prospective inflationtargeting framework.
|Date of creation:||2005|
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