Estimating Output Gap for the Turkish Economy
This paper presents a time-varying parameter methodology for constructing an estimate of output gap for Turkey. We employ the extended Kalman filter technique in a multivariate setting in which economic content is utilized by the inclusion of inflation and output gap dynamics. As a by-product, we characterize time varying nature of output gap and inflation dynamics. Several results emerge: First, we show that estimating the potential output and output gap in a multivariate setting has several advantages over univariate techniques such as the HP filter. Second, our output gap estimates confirm the historical boom-bust cycles in Turkey and point out that business cycle displays sharp turning points rather than exhibiting a smooth pattern. Third, output gap seems to have contributed dramatically to the disinflation process in 2002-2004. Fourth, estimated time varying parameters suggest that, recently, the relation between real interest rates and the output gap seems to have been converging to a more conventional one. What is more, relative impact of output gap on inflation dynamics has been rising since 2001. Putting aside the “fiscal dominance” argument, these latter findings bode well for the effectiveness of the monetary policy within the prospective inflationtargeting framework.
|Date of creation:||2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (90 312) 507 5000
Fax: (90 312) 507 5640
Web page: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sebastian Edwards & Miguel A. Savastano, 1999. "Exchange Rates in Emerging Economies: What Do We Know? What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 7228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 2002.
"A simple framework for international monetary policy analysis,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 879-904, July.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 2002. "A Simple Framework for International Monetary Policy Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 3355, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2002. "A Simple Framework for International Monetary Policy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 8870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff & Jacob Frenkel, .
"The Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification?,"
32044, Harvard University OpenScholar.
- Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff, 1983. "The Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification?," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 67-112 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff, 1982. "The out-of-sample failure of empirical exchange rate models: sampling error or misspecification?," International Finance Discussion Papers 204, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007.
"Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 69-102.
- Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," NBER Working Papers 10734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Emerging market business cycles: the cycle is the trend," Working Papers 04-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
- Laurence Boone & Michel Juillard & Doug Laxton & Papa N'Diaye, 2002. "How Well Do Alternative Time-Varying Parameter Models of the NAIRU Help Policymakers Forecast Unemployment and Inflation in the OECD Countries?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 359, Society for Computational Economics.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2001.
"The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time,"
CIRANO Working Papers
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon Van_Norden, 2000. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0768, Econometric Society.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The reliability of output gap estimates in real time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Macroeconomics 9907006, EconWPA.
- Hakan Kara & Hande Kucuk Tuger & Umit Ozlale & Burc Tuger & Devrim Yavuz & Eray M. Yucel, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey : Has it Changed and to What Extent?," Working Papers 0504, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Víctor Gómez & Agustín Maravall, 1998. "Seasonal Adjustment and Signal Extraction in Economic Time Series," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9809, Banco de Espa�a.
- Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Bart Turtelboom & Peter Isard & Eswar Prasad, 1998. "Multimod Mark III; The Core Dynamic and Steady State Model," IMF Occasional Papers 164, International Monetary Fund.
- Marco Rossi & Daniel Leigh, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 02/204, International Monetary Fund.
- Andreas Billmeier, 2004. "Ghostbusting; Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?," IMF Working Papers 04/146, International Monetary Fund.
- Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Kara, Orhan, 2000. "Exchange rate overshooting in Turkey," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 89-93, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:0503. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ozlem Ekmekciler Ramalho Rocha)or (Ilker Cakar)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.