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Higher-Order Asymptotic Expansions of the Least-Squares Estimation Bias in First-Order Dynamic Regression Models

Author

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  • Kiviet, J.F.
  • Phillips, G.D.A.

Abstract

An approximation to order T-2 is obtained for the bias of the least-squares estimator in the stationary ARX model which yields generalisations of Kendall's and White's classic results for particular variants of AR(1) models. The results show that generally the second-order approximation is considerably better than its first-order counterpart in ARX models. This is also largely true for AR(1) models except that in such models second-order approximations may be vulnerable in the near unit root case.

Suggested Citation

  • Kiviet, J.F. & Phillips, G.D.A., 1999. "Higher-Order Asymptotic Expansions of the Least-Squares Estimation Bias in First-Order Dynamic Regression Models," Discussion Papers 9903, Exeter University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:exe:wpaper:9903
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kiviet, Jan F. & Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1997. "Exact tests in single equation autoregressive distributed lag models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 325-353, October.
    2. Emma M. Iglesias & Garry D. A. Phillips, 2008. "Finite Sample Theory of QMLE in ARCH Models with Dynamics in the Mean Equation," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 719-737, July.
    3. Magnus, J.R., 1978. "The moments of products of quadratic forms in normal variables," Other publications TiSEM 17c77a44-1789-4cf4-a382-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
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    5. Jan F. Kiviet & Garry D.A. Phillips, 1998. "Degrees of freedom adjustment for disturbance variance estimators in dynamic regression models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(RegularPa), pages 44-70.
    6. Tanizaki, Hisashi, 2000. "Bias correction of OLSE in the regression model with lagged dependent variables," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 495-511, October.
    7. Grubb, David & Symons, James, 1987. "Bias in Regressions With a Lagged Dependent Variable," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(03), pages 371-386, June.
    8. Evans, G B A & Savin, N E, 1984. "Testing for Unit Roots: 2," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(5), pages 1241-1269, September.
    9. Broda, Simon & Carstensen, Kai & Paolella, Marc S., 2007. "Bias-adjusted estimation in the ARX(1) model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3355-3367, April.
    10. Kiviet, Jan F. & Phillips, Garry D. A. & Schipp, Bernhard, 1995. "The bias of OLS, GLS, and ZEF estimators in dynamic seemingly unrelated regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 241-266, September.
    11. Tsui, Albert K. & Ali, Mukhtar M., 1994. "Exact distributions, density functions and moments of the last squares estimator in a first-order autoregressive model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 433-454, May.
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    23. repec:exe:wpaper:99/06 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Kiviet, Jan F. & Phillips, Garry D.A., 1993. "Alternative Bias Approximations in Regressions with a Lagged-Dependent Variable," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(01), pages 62-80, January.
    25. Sawa, Takamitsu, 1978. "The exact moments of the least squares estimator for the autoregressive model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 159-172, October.
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    27. Orcutt, Guy H & Winokur, Herbert S, Jr, 1969. "First Order Autoregression: Inference, Estimation, and Prediction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(1), pages 1-14, January.
    28. Nankervis, J. C. & Savin, N. E., 1988. "The exact moments of the least-squares estimator for the autoregressive model corrections and extensions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 381-388, March.
    29. Kadane, Joseph B, 1971. "Comparison of k-Class Estimators when the Disturbances are Small," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 723-737, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kiviet, Jan F. & Phillips, Garry D.A., 2014. "Improved variance estimation of maximum likelihood estimators in stable first-order dynamic regression models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 424-448.
    2. Liu-Evans, Gareth, 2014. "A note on approximating moments of least squares estimators," MPRA Paper 57543, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Atukorala, Ranjani & Sriananthakumar, Sivagowry, 2015. "A comparison of the accuracy of asymptotic approximations in the dynamic regression model using Kullback-Leibler information," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 169-174.
    4. Liu-Evans, Gareth, 2010. "An alternative approach to approximating the moments of least squares estimators," MPRA Paper 26550, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Jan F. Kiviet & Garry D. A. Phillips, 2000. "Improved Coefficient and Variance Estimation in Stable First-Order Dynamic Regression Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0631, Econometric Society.
    6. van Giersbergen, Noud P.A., 2016. "The ability to correct the bias in the stable AD(1,1) model with a feedback effect," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 186-204.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    UNIT ROOTS ; REGRESSION ANALYSIS ; ECONOMETRICS;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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