포스트 코로나 시대 주요국의 통화·재정정책 방향과 시사점(hanges, Challenges and Implications of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Directions in the Post Pandemic Era)

본 연구는 코로나19 팬데믹으로 변화된 정책 환경을 점검하고 향후 재정 및 통화 정책 수행 시 고려해야 할 점을 분석하였다. 우선 주요국의 정책대응 현황과 효과를 2008년 글로벌 금융위기와 비교하여 고찰하였다. 또한 팬데믹 이후 달라진 재정정책의 효과와 지속되는 비전통적 통화정책 등 정책 환경의 불확실성이 유발하는 경제적 효과를 분석하였다. 분석 결과를 바탕으로 단기적 지원책에서의 포용성 강화, 구조개선을 위한 투자에서 적시성 및 실효성 고려, 중기적 재정 건전화 방안 마련, 미국의 통화정책 정상화 경로에 유의, 감염병 및 대전환에 관련한 국제공조 강화 등을 제언하였다. COVID-19 has changed the way of our lives since it started emerging as a pandemic early 2020. The global public experience of masks and social distancing will leave a trauma, and eventually work as a main driver for us to reconsider and improve our system. The need for change becomes even bigger as the pandemic continues beyond initial expectations. With that, we are now entering the era of the great transformation. Against this backdrop, this study focuses on examining the policy environment changed by the COVID-19 pandemic and analyzing the point to be considered when implementing future fiscal and monetary policies. By examining the similarities and differences in fiscal and monetary policies compared to the 2008 global financial crisis, the path of recovery after COVID-19 can be understood. The characteristics of major countries’ policy responses to this crisis are that short-term responses were quickly introduced, and mid-tolong-term responses for economic structural change are being made in various ways. The initial economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic did not stem from the frictions in demand, but rather the impact on the supply side, such as labor supply restrictions due to regional blockades. Responding to supply shocks with only accommodative monetary policy can lead to stagflation. Meanwhile, as the demand for services such as tourism sharply decreased due to the local lockdown, the economic damage was aggravated. Fiscal expenditures to relieve the economic damage followed in this situation. Disaster subsidies and selective support for small and medium-sized businesses were quickly implemented. The mid- to long-term response in major countries is focused on investment in physical and human infrastructure for digital transformation and green transformation. A large-scale longterm investment plan of a decade is being drawn up among concerns over financial soundness. Thus, the political controversy can be expected to continue until public investment schemes are confirmed. (the rest omitted)