Can Macroeconomic Variables Account for the Term Structure of Sovereign Spreads? Studying the Brazilian Case
The objective of our work is to study the term structure of interest rates and thesovereign credit spreads of emerging markets. We develop a model from termstructure, credit risk and vector autoregressive models, based on the articles by Angand Piazzesi (2003) and Ang, Dong and Piazzesi (2005). Those article?s principalinnovation is to include and study the relation among macroeconomic variables andstate variables of conventional term structure models. Our contributions includesimplifying their model, propose a new estimation method, add credit risk, and showresults for Brazilian domestic and external markets.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: SBS - Quadra 01 - Bloco J - Ed. BNDES, Brasília, DF - 70076-90|
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- Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
- Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003.
"A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
- Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi, 2001. "A No-Arbitrage Vector Autoregression of Term Structure Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Latent Variables," NBER Working Papers 8363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Harrison, J. Michael & Kreps, David M., 1979. "Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 381-408, June.
- Andrew Ang & Sen Dong & Monika Piazzesi, 2005.
"No-arbitrage Taylor rules,"
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406.
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