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Response to Seitz and Tödter, ‘How the P* Model Rationalizes Monetary Targeting: A Comment on Svensson’

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  • Lars E. O. Svensson

Abstract

Seitz and T?dter argue, counter to Svensson, that the P* model provides a rationale for money‐growth targeting. In particular, they argue that ‘money growth targeting is a special form of inflation forecast targeting based on a “limited” information set. In contrast to “full information” inflation forecast targeting, money growth targeting is likely to be more robust under changing conditions of the real world‘. However, money‐growth targeting is better described as a special case of inflation targeting, namely when money growth is considered to be the only predictor of future inflation. But there is overwhelming empirical evidence that there are not only other, but also better, predictors of future inflation than money growth, which makes inflation‐forecast targeting superior to money‐growth targeting. Inflation‐forecast targeting is indeed more robust (in the sense of using available information and allowing judgemental adjustments in a flexible way) than monetary targeting. In particular, in the P* model, the real money gap is a better predictor of future inflation than money growth, as demonstrated theoretically by Svensson and empirically by Gerlach and Svensson (the empirical finding is also confirmed by Trecroci and Vega). Therefore, inflation‐forecast targeting is superior also within the P* model. Under `changing conditions of the real world’, for instance after the formation of a monetary union, money growth is likely to be particularly unreliable as a predictor of future inflation, making monetary targeting especially unsuitable and non‐robust.

Suggested Citation

  • Lars E. O. Svensson, 2001. "Response to Seitz and Tödter, ‘How the P* Model Rationalizes Monetary Targeting: A Comment on Svensson’," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 2(3), pages 309-312, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:2:y:2001:i:3:p:309-312
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-0475.00041
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    1. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000. "Does the P* Model Provide Any Rationale for Monetary Targeting?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 1(1), pages 69-81, February.
    2. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003. "Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1649-1672, November.
    3. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Monetary policy issues for the Eurosystem," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-136, December.
    4. Professor Lars E O Svensson, 2001. "Independent review of the operation of monetary policy in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 64, March.
    5. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2002. "Eurosystem monetary targeting: Lessons from U.S. data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 417-442, March.
    6. Franz Seitz & Karl‐Heinz Tödter, 2001. "How the P* Model Rationalizes Monetary Targeting: A Comment on Svensson," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 2(3), pages 303-308, August.
    7. Svensson, Lars E. O. & Woodford, Michael, 2003. "Indicator variables for optimal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 691-720, April.
    8. Trecroci, Carmine & Vega, Juan Luis, 2000. "The information content of M3 for future inflation," Working Paper Series 33, European Central Bank.
    9. Svensson Lars E. O., 2001. "Response to Seitz and Tödter, `How the P* Model Rationalizes Monetary Targeting: A Comment on Svensson'," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 2(3), pages 309-312, August.
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    1. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2001. "Response to Seitz and Tödter, ‘How the P* Model Rationalizes Monetary Targeting: A Comment on Svensson’," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 2(3), pages 309-312, August.
    2. Clostermann Jörg & Seitz Franz, 2002. "Money, Inflation and Growth in Germany. A Vector-Error-Correction-P-Star Model / Der Zusammenhang zwischen Geldmenge, Output und Preisen in Deutschland. Ein Vektorfehlerkorrektur-P-Star-Ansatz," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 222(6), pages 641-655, December.
    3. Czudaj, Robert, 2011. "P-star in times of crisis - Forecasting inflation for the euro area," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 390-407, September.

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