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Az inflációs cél követésének optimális horizontja Magyarországon
[The optimal horizon for inflation targeting in Hungary]

  • Várpalotai, Viktor

A tanulmány a magyarországi inflációs cél követésének optimális horizontját kívánja meghatározni makro- és vektor-autoregresszív modellek felhasználásával. Batini- Nelson [2000] elemzési keretét és definícióit veszi alapul, ezek alkalmazásával származtat a modellekből az inflációs cél követéséhez optimális horizontokat. Eredményeink szerint, adott feltevéseink mellett, jóléti szempontból elfogadható az a gyakorlat, hogy az MNB a másfél-két évvel előre várt inflációs folyamatokat értékelve dönt a jegybanki irányadó instrumentumról, az előre jelzett infláció és az inflációs cél közötti különbséggel indokolva a monetáris feltételek megváltoztatását. Az alkalmazott másfél-két éves horizont a különféle várható sokkok nagy része esetén már kellő időt nyújt arra, hogy a jegybank az inflációt jóléti szempontból optimálisan alakítsa a célkitűzéseknek megfelelő értékhez. Ugyanakkor a monetáris politika irányítóinak fel kell készülniük olyan, nem elhanyagolható valószínűséggel bekövetkező sokkokra, amelyekre ha a jegybank jóléti szempontból optimálisan reagál, akkor az infláció másfél-két évnél hosszabban is eltérhet a kitűzött céltól. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E37, E52, E58.

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Article provided by Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation) in its journal Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences).

Volume (Year): LIII (2006)
Issue (Month): 12 ()
Pages: 1135-1154

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Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:887
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Order Information: Postal: Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation) Budapest, Budaörsi út 45., 1112, Hungary
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  1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "New directions for stochastic open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 117-153, February.
  2. Douglas Laxton & Paolo Pesenti, 2003. "Monetary Rules for Small, Open, Emerging Economies," NBER Working Papers 9568, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 2001. "Global Implications of Self-Oriented National Monetary Rules," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C01-120, University of California at Berkeley.
  4. Michael Devereux & Charles Engel, 2000. "Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: Price Setting and Exchange Rate Flexibiity," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0016, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  5. Eric Parrado & Andres Velasco, 2002. "Optimal Interest Rate Policy in a Small Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 8721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2004. "Monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small open economy," Economics Working Papers 835, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  7. Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Papers 638, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  8. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Hans Genberg & Sushil Wadhwani, 2002. "Asset Prices in a Flexible Inflation Targeting Framework," NBER Working Papers 8970, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Friedman, Milton, 1972. "Have Monetary Policies Failed?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(2), pages 11-18, May.
  10. Smets, Frank, 2000. "What horizon for price stability," Working Paper Series 0024, European Central Bank.
  11. Sutherland, Alan, 2001. "Inflation Targeting in a Small Open Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 2726, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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