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Survey-based daily estimates of inflation expectations and risk premia in the euro area

Author

Listed:
  • Francesca Lilla

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Gabriele Zinna

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

In this research note, we develop real-time, daily estimates of survey-based inflation expectations and inflation risk premia for the euro area using a simple, nearly model-free approach. We first estimate daily inflation expectations by projecting low-frequency survey measures onto a small set of daily financial variables. We then compute daily inflation risk premia as the difference between inflation-linked swap (ILS) forward rates and the estimated survey-based expectations. The resulting daily estimates provide timely insights for conjunctural analysis and monetary policy, offering a useful complement to measures derived from dynamic term structure models.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesca Lilla & Gabriele Zinna, 2025. "Survey-based daily estimates of inflation expectations and risk premia in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 991, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_991_25
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Burban, Valentin & De Backer, Bruno & Vladu, Andreea Liliana, 2024. "Inflation (de-)anchoring in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2964, European Central Bank.
    2. Jef Boeckx & Leonardo Iania & Joris Wauters, 2025. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Inflation Expectations and Inflation Risk Premia," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 733-743.
    3. Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas & Steffensen, Sigurd A.M., 2022. "Monetary policy expectation errors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 841-858.
    4. Alex Aronovich & Andrew C. Meldrum, 2021. "High-Frequency Estimates of the Natural Real Rate and Inflation Expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-034, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Luigi Bocola & Alessandro Dovis & Kasper Jørgensen & Rishabh Kirpalani, 2024. "Bond Market Views of the Fed," NBER Working Papers 32620, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    7. Anna Cieslak, 2018. "Short-Rate Expectations and Unexpected Returns in Treasury Bonds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(9), pages 3265-3306.
    8. Sara Cecchetti & Davide Fantino & Alessandro Notarpietro & Marianna Riggi & Alex Tagliabracci & Andrea Tiseno & Roberta Zizza, 2021. "Inflation expectations in the euro area: indicators, analyses and models used at Banca d’Italia," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 612, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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    10. Burban, Valentin & De Backer, Bruno & Schupp, Fabian & Vladu, Andreea Liliana, 2022. "Decomposing market-based measures of inflation compensation into inflation expectations and risk premia," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 8.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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