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Monetary determinants of the Swiss franc

Author

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  • Prof. Dr. Carlos Lenz
  • Marcel R. Savioz

Abstract

This paper looks into the determinants of the Swiss franc exchange rate against the euro. Based on the monetary approach to exchange rates, we start from the premise that monetary policy has an influence on the exchange rate. To measure this effect, we apply the structural vector-autoregression methodology on a set of Swiss macroeconomic variables and the euro area interest rate. Overall, we find that Swiss monetary policy contributes between 7 and 15% to variations of the exchange rate between 1981 and 2008. Focusing on the episode between 2003 and 2005 we attribute more than half of the depreciation of the franc to Swiss monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Prof. Dr. Carlos Lenz & Marcel R. Savioz, 2009. "Monetary determinants of the Swiss franc," Working Papers 2009-16, Swiss National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2009-16
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    File URL: https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2009/working_paper_2009_16
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Artis, Michael & Ehrmann, Michael, 2006. "The exchange rate - A shock-absorber or source of shocks? A study of four open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 874-893, October.
    2. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
    3. Mark, Nelson C. & Sul, Donggyu, 2001. "Nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: Evidence from a small post-Bretton woods panel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 29-52, February.
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    5. Fank Smets, 1997. "Measuring Monetary Policy Shocks in France, Germany and Italy: The Role of The Exchange Rate," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 133(III), pages 597-616, September.
    6. Tanya Molodtsova & Alex Nikolsko‐Rzhevskyy & David H. Papell, 2011. "Taylor Rules and the Euro," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(2‐3), pages 535-552, March.
    7. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 907-931, November.
    8. Cerra, Valerie & Saxena, Sweta Chaman, 2010. "The monetary model strikes back: Evidence from the world," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 184-196, July.
    9. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense? A Reply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 943-948, November.
    10. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dr. Fabian Fink & Dr. Lukas Frei & Dr. Thomas Maag & Dr. Tanja Zehnder, 2020. "The impact of SNB monetary policy on the Swiss franc and longer-term interest rates," Working Papers 2020-01, Swiss National Bank.
    2. Jean-Marc Natal & Tommaso Mancini Griffoli & Christoph Meyer & Attilio Zanetti, 2015. "Determinants of the Swiss Franc Real Exchange Rate," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 151(IV), pages 299-331, December.
    3. Vallet, Guillaume, 2016. "The role of the swiss franc in Switzerland’s European stance," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 35-44.
    4. Dr. Christian Grisse, 2020. "The effect of monetary policy on the Swiss franc: an SVAR approach," Working Papers 2020-02, Swiss National Bank.
    5. Irineu Carvalho Filho, 2015. "Risk-Off Episodes and Swiss Franc Appreciation: The Role of Capital Flows," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 16(4), pages 439-463, November.
    6. Mathias Hoffmann & Rahel Suter, 2010. "The Swiss Franc Exchange Rate and Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: Global vs Domestic Factors," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(I), pages 349-371, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; monetary policy; structural VAR models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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