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Un índice coincidente para Medellín

Author

Listed:
  • Gerardo Alberto Villa Durán

    () (Banco de la República de Colombia)

Abstract

En este artículo se estudia la actividad económica de Medellín entre 1984 y 2007 a través de un indicador sintético, un índice coincidente, que resume la evolución de la actividad en forma agregada. El indicador mensual compuesto se construye siguiendo la metodología propuesta por Stock y Watson, y en ese sentido no registra ninguna innovación. Siguiendo el mismo procedimiento utilizado en el caso de Medellín se construye un índice para Colombia y se compara con el de Medellín. Se utilizan como variables el número total de trabajadores, un indicador del comercio al por menor, el ingreso mediano de los trabajadores y el consumo de energía eléctrica en Medellín. Para Colombia, la masa salarial, el consumo de energía eléctrica en el sistema interconectado nacional; el índice de comercio al por menor y, finalmente, los ingresos medianos. El estudio constituye una interpretación de la economía de la ciudad construida en el contexto de indicadores cíclicos, sobre la base de un modelo estadístico.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerardo Alberto Villa Durán, 2014. "Un índice coincidente para Medellín," Ensayos sobre Economía Regional (ESER) 58, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:eserdt:58
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    File URL: http://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/bitstream/handle/20.500.12134/6554/eser_58.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christian Gillitzer & Jonathan Kearns & Anthony Richards, 2005. "The Australian Business Cycle: A Coincident Indicator Approach," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.), The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 67-77, February.
    3. Francisco Javier LASSO VALDERRAMA, 2002. "Nueva metodología de Encuesta de hogares. ¿Más o menos desempleados?," Archivos de Economía 003282, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    4. Lisandro Abrego & Pär Österholm, 2010. "External Linkages and Economic Growth in Colombia: Insights from a Bayesian VAR Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(12), pages 1788-1810, December.
    5. Theodore M. Crone, 2000. "A new look at economic indexes for the states in the Third District," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Nov, pages 3-14.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Indicadores económicos de Medellín; ciclo económico Medellín; indicador sintético; índice coincidente.;

    JEL classification:

    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods
    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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