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Macroeconomic-Driven Prepayment Risk and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities

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Listed:
  • Mikhail Chernov
  • Brett R. Dunn
  • Francis A. Longstaff

Abstract

We develop a three-factor no-arbitrage model for valuing mortgage-backed securities in which we solve for the implied prepayment function from the cross-section of market prices. This model closely fits the cross-section of mortgage-backed security prices without needing to specify an econometric prepayment model. We find that implied prepayments are generally higher than actual prepayments, providing direct evidence of significant macroeconomic-driven prepayment risk premiums in mortgage-backed security prices. We also find evidence that mortgage-backed security prices were significantly affected by Fannie Mae credit risk and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programs. Received May 10, 2016; editorial decision September 22, 2017 by Editor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikhail Chernov & Brett R. Dunn & Francis A. Longstaff, 2018. "Macroeconomic-Driven Prepayment Risk and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 1132-1183.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:31:y:2018:i:3:p:1132-1183.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhx140
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    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Bissiri & Riccardo Cogo, 2017. "Behavioral Value Adjustments," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(08), pages 1-37, December.
    2. Sá, Ana Isabel, 2020. "To change or not to change: the impact of the law on mortgage origination," MPRA Paper 104818, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Shi, Tianxiang & Lee, Yung-Tsung, 2021. "Prepayment risk in reverse mortgages: An intensity-governed surrender model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 68-82.
    4. Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Lee, Hae Kang & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2024. "Aggregate lapsation risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    5. Peter Diep & Andrea L. Eisfeldt & Scott Richardson, 2021. "The Cross Section of MBS Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(5), pages 2093-2151, October.
    6. Kubitza, Christian & Grochola, Nicolaus & Gründl, Helmut, 2025. "Life insurance convexity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    7. Justin Sirignano & Apaar Sadhwani & Kay Giesecke, 2016. "Deep Learning for Mortgage Risk," Papers 1607.02470, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2018.
    8. Haoyang Liu & Zhaogang Song & James Vickery, 2021. "Defragmenting Markets: Evidence from Agency MBS," Staff Reports 965, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    9. Passmore, Stuart Wayne & von Hafften, Alexander H., 2020. "Financing affordable and sustainable homeownership with Fixed-COFI mortgages," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    10. Thi Mai Luong, 2020. "Selection Effects of Lender and Borrower Choices on Risk Measurement, Management and Prudential Regulation," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 3-2020, January-A.
    11. Andreas Fuster & David Lucca & James Vickery, 2023. "Mortgage-backed securities," Chapters, in: Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright (ed.), Research Handbook of Financial Markets, chapter 15, pages 331-357, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Wayne Passmore & Alexander H. von Hafften, 2018. "Financing Affordable and Sustainable Homeownership with Fixed-COFI Mortgages," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-009, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Luong, Thi Mai & Scheule, Harald, 2022. "Benchmarking forecast approaches for mortgage credit risk for forward periods," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 299(2), pages 750-767.
    14. Liu, Fengming & Song, Yingda, 2025. "Analysis of credit ABS based on Markov chain approaches," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    15. Wayne Passmore & Alexander H. von Hafften, 2017. "Improving the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-090, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Chuang-Chang Chang & Hsiao-Wei Ho & Henry Hongren Huang & Yildiray Yildirim, 2024. "A reduced-form model for lease contract valuation with embedded options," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 841-864, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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