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Life Insurance Convexity

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Kubitza

    (European Central Bank)

  • Nicolaus Grochola

    (Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation, Germany.)

  • Helmut Gründl

    (Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation, Germany.)

Abstract

Life insurers sell savings contracts with surrender options, which allow policyholders to prema-turely receive guaranteed surrender values. These surrender options move toward the money when interest rates rise. Hence, higher interest rates raise surrender rates, as we document empirically by exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in monetary policy. Using a calibrated model, we then estimate that surrender options would force insurers to sell up to 2% of their investments during an enduring interest rate rise of 25 bps per year. We show that these fire sales are fueled by surrender value guarantees and insurers’ long-term investments.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Kubitza & Nicolaus Grochola & Helmut Gründl, 2022. "Life Insurance Convexity," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 154, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:154
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    Cited by:

    1. Mehrez Ben Nasr, 2025. "Determinants of Surrenders in Life Insurance: Evidence from Tunisian Periodic Savings," International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation, International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation (IJRSI), vol. 12(10), pages 3104-3119, October.
    2. Giuzio, Margherita & Kapadia, Sujit & Kaufmann, Christoph & Storz, Manuela & Weistroffer, Christian, 2025. "Macroprudential policy, monetary policy and non-bank financial intermediation," Working Paper Series 3130, European Central Bank.
    3. Sydow, Matthias & Fukker, Gábor & Dubiel-Teleszynski, Tomasz & Franch, Fabio & Gründl, Helmut & Miccio, Debora & Pellegrino, Michela & Gallet, Sébastien & Kotronis, Stelios & Schlütter, Sebastian & So, 2024. "Banks and non-banks stressed: liquidity shocks and the mitigating role of insurance companies," Working Paper Series 3000, European Central Bank.
    4. Corradin, Stefano & Fontana, Alessandro & Kubitza, Christian & Maddaloni, Angela, 2025. "The complex linkages between euro area insurers and sovereign bond markets," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 137.
    5. Grochola, Nicolaus & Browne, Mark Joseph & Gründl, Helmut & Schlütter, Sebastian, 2021. "Exploring the market risk profiles of U.S. and European life insurers," ICIR Working Paper Series 39/21, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    6. Cheng, Chunli & Hilpert, Christian & Miri Lavasani, Aidin & Schaefer, Mick, 2023. "Surrender contagion in life insurance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 305(3), pages 1465-1479.
    7. Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Lee, Hae Kang & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2024. "Aggregate lapsation risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G52 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Insurance

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