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Lapse-Based Insurance

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Gottlieb
  • Kent Smetters

Abstract

Most individual life insurance policies lapse, with lapsers cross-subsidizing non-lapsers. We show that policies and lapse patterns predicted by standard rational expectations models are the opposite of those observed empirically. We propose two behavioral models consistent with the evidence: (i) consumers forget to pay premiums and (ii) consumers understate future liquidity needs. We conduct two surveys with a large insurer. New buyers believe that their own lapse probabilities are small compared to the insurer's actual experience. For recent lapsers, forgetfulness accounts for 37.8 percent of lapses while unexpected liquidity accounts for 15.4 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Gottlieb & Kent Smetters, 2021. "Lapse-Based Insurance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(8), pages 2377-2416, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:111:y:2021:i:8:p:2377-2416
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20160868
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kubitza, Christian & Grochola, Nicolaus & Gründl, Helmut, 2025. "Life insurance convexity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    2. Lucas Goodman & Anita Mukherjee & Shanthi Ramnath, 2022. "Set it and Forget it? Financing Retirement in an Age of Defaults," Working Paper Series WP 2022-50, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    3. Huang, Hsiao-Tzu & Hwang, Yawen & Chan, Linus Fang-Shu & Tsai, Chenghsien Jason, 2024. "Value-enhancing modeling of surrenders and lapses," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 48-63.
    4. Goodman, Lucas & Mukherjee, Anita & Ramnath, Shanthi, 2023. "Set it and forget it? Financing retirement in an age of defaults," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 47-68.
    5. Cheng, Chunli, 2022. "Beyond death: The impact of a population-wide health shock on life insurance," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    6. Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Lee, Hae Kang & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2024. "Aggregate lapsation risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    7. Philip Mulder & Yanjun Liao, 2024. "What’s at Stake? Understanding the Role of Home Equity in Flood Insurance Demand," Working Papers 24-06, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    8. Cheng, Chunli & Hilpert, Christian & Miri Lavasani, Aidin & Schaefer, Mick, 2023. "Surrender contagion in life insurance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 305(3), pages 1465-1479.
    9. Liao, Yanjun (Penny) & Mulder, Philip, 2021. "What’s at Stake? Understanding the Role of Home Equity in Flood Insurance Demand," RFF Working Paper Series 21-25, Resources for the Future.
    10. Downs, Justin, 2024. "Screening, overconfidence, and competition’s effect on market efficiency," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    11. Chiang, Chia-Chun & Niehaus, Greg, 2024. "Market discipline and policy loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    12. Jiakun Zheng & Ling Zhou, 2025. "Too risky to hedge: An experiment on narrow bracketing," Post-Print hal-05063379, HAL.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G52 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Insurance

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