IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

A stochastic forward-looking model to assess the profitability and solvency of European insurers

Listed author(s):
  • Berdin, Elia
  • Pancaro, Cosimo
  • Kok Sørensen, Christoffer

In this paper, we develop an analytical framework for conducting forward-looking assessments of profitability and solvency of the main euro area insurance sectors. We model the balance sheet of an insurance company encompassing both life and non-life business and we calibrate it using country level data to make it representative of the major euro area insurance markets. Then, we project this representative balance sheet forward under stochastic capital markets, stochastic mortality developments and stochastic claims. The model highlights the potential threats to insurers solvency and profitability stemming from a sustained period of low interest rates particularly in those markets which are largely exposed to reinvestment risks due to the relatively high guarantees and generous profit participation schemes. The model also proves how the resilience of insurers to adverse financial developments heavily depends on the diversification of their business mix. Finally, the model identifies potential negative spillovers between life and non-life business thorugh the redistribution of capital within groups.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/141823/1/860410285.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR) in its series ICIR Working Paper Series with number 21/16.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2016
Handle: RePEc:zbw:icirwp:2116
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Campus Westend, Grüneburgplatz 1, D-60323 Frankfurt am Main

Web page: http://www.icir.de/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Gatzert, Nadine & Schmeiser, Hato, 2008. "The influence of corporate taxes on pricing and capital structure in property-liability insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 50-58, February.
  2. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Motohiro Yogo, 2015. "The Cost of Financial Frictions for Life Insurers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(1), pages 445-475, January.
  3. F. Borel-Mathurin & P.-E. Darpeix & Q. Guibert & S. Loisel, 2015. "Main determinants of profit sharing policy in the French life insurance industry," Débats économiques et financiers 17, Banque de France.
  4. Amy Finkelstein & James Poterba, 2004. "Adverse Selection in Insurance Markets: Policyholder Evidence from the U.K. Annuity Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(1), pages 183-208, February.
  5. Pablo Antolin & Sebastian Schich & Juan Yermo, 2011. "The Economic Impact of Protracted Low Interest Rates on Pension Funds and Insurance Companies," OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends, OECD Publishing, vol. 2011(1), pages 237-256.
  6. Hanewald, Katja & Piggott, John & Sherris, Michael, 2013. "Individual post-retirement longevity risk management under systematic mortality risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 87-97.
  7. Gatzert, Nadine & Schmeiser, Hato, 2008. "Combining fair pricing and capital requirements for non-life insurance companies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2589-2596, December.
  8. Frederick R. Macaulay, 1938. "Some Theoretical Problems Suggested by the Movements of Interest Rates, Bond Yields and Stock Prices in the United States since 1856," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number maca38-1.
  9. Gatzert, Nadine, 2008. "Asset management and surplus distribution strategies in life insurance: An examination with respect to risk pricing and risk measurement," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 839-849, April.
  10. Bauer, Daniel & Kiesel, Rudiger & Kling, Alexander & Ru[ss], Jochen, 2006. "Risk-neutral valuation of participating life insurance contracts," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 171-183, October.
  11. Ian Tower & Gregorio Impavido, 2009. "How the Financial Crisis Affects Pensions and Insurance and Why the Impacts Matter," IMF Working Papers 09/151, International Monetary Fund.
  12. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-01165475 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Cannon, Edmund & Tonks, Ian, 2008. "Annuity Markets," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199216994.
  14. French, Kenneth R & Poterba, James M, 1991. "Investor Diversification and International Equity Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 222-226, May.
  15. Dietrich Domanski & Hyun Song Shin & Vladyslav Sushko, 2017. "The Hunt for Duration: Not Waving but Drowning?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(1), pages 113-153, April.
  16. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Has financial development made the world riskier?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 313-369.
  17. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
  18. Grosen, Anders & Lochte Jorgensen, Peter, 2000. "Fair valuation of life insurance liabilities: The impact of interest rate guarantees, surrender options, and bonus policies," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 37-57, February.
  19. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 627-627, November.
  20. Joyce, Michael & Liu, Zhuoshi & Tonks, Ian, 2014. "Institutional investor portfolio allocation, quantitative easing and the global financial crisis," Bank of England working papers 510, Bank of England.
  21. Helmut Gründl & Thomas Post & Roman N. Schulze, 2006. "To Hedge or Not to Hedge: Managing Demographic Risk in Life Insurance Companies," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(1), pages 19-41.
  22. Anna Rita Bacinello, 2003. "Fair Valuation of a Guaranteed Life Insurance Participating Contract Embedding a Surrender Option," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 70(3), pages 461-487.
  23. Berdin, Elia, 2016. "Interest rate risk, longevity risk and the solvency of life insurers," ICIR Working Paper Series 23/16, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
  24. Anke Kablau & Michael Wedow, 2012. "Gauging the Impact of a Low Interest Rate Environment on German Life Insurers," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 58(4), pages 279-298.
  25. Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
  26. Wills, Samuel & Sherris, Michael, 2010. "Securitization, structuring and pricing of longevity risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 173-185, February.
  27. Brouhns, Natacha & Denuit, Michel & Vermunt, Jeroen K., 2002. "A Poisson log-bilinear regression approach to the construction of projected lifetables," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 373-393, December.
  28. Pitacco, Ermanno & Denuit, Michel & Haberman, Steven & Olivieri, Annamaria, 2009. "Modelling Longevity Dynamics for Pensions and Annuity Business," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199547272.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:icirwp:2116. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.