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A stochastic forward-looking model to assess the profitability and solvency of European insurers

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  • Berdin, Elia
  • Pancaro, Cosimo
  • Kok Sørensen, Christoffer

Abstract

In this paper, we develop an analytical framework for conducting forward-looking assessments of profitability and solvency of the main euro area insurance sectors. We model the balance sheet of an insurance company encompassing both life and non-life business and we calibrate it using country level data to make it representative of the major euro area insurance markets. Then, we project this representative balance sheet forward under stochastic capital markets, stochastic mortality developments and stochastic claims. The model highlights the potential threats to insurers solvency and profitability stemming from a sustained period of low interest rates particularly in those markets which are largely exposed to reinvestment risks due to the relatively high guarantees and generous profit participation schemes. The model also proves how the resilience of insurers to adverse financial developments heavily depends on the diversification of their business mix. Finally, the model identifies potential negative spillovers between life and non-life business thorugh the redistribution of capital within groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Berdin, Elia & Pancaro, Cosimo & Kok Sørensen, Christoffer, 2016. "A stochastic forward-looking model to assess the profitability and solvency of European insurers," ICIR Working Paper Series 21/16, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:icirwp:2116
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    Cited by:

    1. Kubitza, Christian & Regele, Fabian, 2017. "Persistence of insurance activities and financial stability," ICIR Working Paper Series 30/17, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    2. Berdin, Elia & Gründl, Helmut & Kubitza, Christian, 2017. "Rising interest rates, lapse risk, and the stability of life insurers," ICIR Working Paper Series 29/17, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Stability; Insurance; Interest Rate Risk; Stress Test;

    JEL classification:

    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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