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Some UK evidence on the Forward Looking IS Equation:

  • Paul Turner


    (Dept of Economics, Loughborough University)

This paper seeks to demonstrate that a backward looking specification of the IS curve using UK data can encompass the forward looking model recently discussed by Kara and Nelson (2004). By relaxing the restriction that the interest rate and the inflation rate enter the IS curve with coefficients of equal magnitude but opposite sign, we obtain IS curve estimates which are empirically plausible and which encompass the rival specification.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Loughborough University in its series Discussion Paper Series with number 2007_16.

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Date of creation: May 2007
Date of revision: May 2007
Handle: RePEc:lbo:lbowps:2007_16
Contact details of provider: Postal: Loughborough, Leicestershire, LE11 3TU
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  1. Svensson, Lars E.O. & Rudebusch , Glenn, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 637, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  2. Ray C. Fair, 2001. "On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1300, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 2002.
  3. Arturo Extrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1998. "Dynamic inconsistencies: counterfactual implications of a class of rational expectations models," Working Papers 98-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  4. S. G. B Henry & A. R. Pagan, 2004. "The Econometrics of the New Keynesian Policy Model: Introduction," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 581-607, 09.
  5. Amit Kara & Edward Nelson, 2004. "International Evidence on the Stability of the Optimizing IS Equation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 687-712, 09.
  6. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2005. "The IS curve and the transmission of monetary policy: is there a puzzle?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 29-36.
  7. Bennett T. McCallum, 2001. "Should Monetary Policy Respond Strongly to Output Gaps?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 258-262, May.
  8. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-92, December.
  9. Robert G. King, 2000. "The new IS-LM model : language, logic, and limits," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 45-103.
  10. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2003. "Monetary Policy Shifts and the Stability of Monetary Policy Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(1), pages 94-104, February.
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