IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/27209.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exchange rates or stock prices, what causes what: A firm level empirical investigation

Author

Listed:
  • Rashid, Abdul

Abstract

The study employs cointegration, the standard Granger causality tests and vector error correction modeling technique to investigate the cause-effect association between exchange rates and stock prices for Pakistan. It uses weekly data for 70 individual securities and the trade-weighted exchange rate over the span from January 1, 1999 to March 31, 2004. The results of cointegration tests show that there is no co-movement between the said variables for most of the examined firms. On the issue of causation, the evidences are mixed. In some cases causation runs from stock prices to exchange rate whereas for some firms’ stock prices are affected by the changes in trade-weighted exchange rate. However, the analysis findings are generally supporting the asset market approach to exchange rate determination that reports no link between the said variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Rashid, Abdul, 2007. "Exchange rates or stock prices, what causes what: A firm level empirical investigation," MPRA Paper 27209, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:27209
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/27209/1/MPRA_paper_27209.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1991. "On the power of Dickey-Fuller tests against fractional alternatives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 155-160, February.
    2. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    3. Issam Abdalla & Victor Murinde, 1997. "Exchange rate and stock price interactions in emerging financial markets: evidence on India, Korea, Pakistan and the Philippines," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 25-35.
    4. Calvo, Guillermo A & Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1977. "A Model of Exchange Rate Determination under Currency Substitution and Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 617-625, June.
    5. Fazal Husain & Tariq Mahmood, 2001. "The Stock Market and the Economy in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 40(2), pages 107-114.
    6. Chow, Edward H & Lee, Wayne Y & Solt, Michael E, 1997. "The Exchange-Rate Risk Exposure of Asset Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(1), pages 105-123, January.
    7. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & Irandoust, Manuchehr, 2002. "On the Causality between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices: A Note," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 197-203, April.
    8. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Exchange Rates and the Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 960-971, December.
    9. Li Lian Ong & H. Y. Izan, 1999. "Stocks and currencies: are they related?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(5), pages 523-532.
    10. Solnik, Bruno, 1987. " Using Financial Prices to Test Exchange Rate Models: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 141-149, March.
    11. Driskill, Robert, 1980. "Exchange Rate Dynamics, Portfolio Balance, and Relative Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(4), pages 776-783, September.
    12. Granger, Clive W. J. & Huangb, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin-Wei, 2000. "A bivariate causality between stock prices and exchange rates: evidence from recent Asianflu," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 337-354.
    13. Smith, C. E., 1992. "Stock markets and the exchange rate: A multi-country approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 607-629.
    14. Naeem Muhammad & Abdul Rasheed, 2002. "Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Are they Related? Evidence from South Asian Countries," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 41(4), pages 535-550.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock Price; Exchange Rate; Firm-Level; Cointegration;

    JEL classification:

    • P34 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:27209. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.