Exchange rates or stock prices, what causes what: A firm level empirical investigation
The study employs cointegration, the standard Granger causality tests and vector error correction modeling technique to investigate the cause-effect association between exchange rates and stock prices for Pakistan. It uses weekly data for 70 individual securities and the trade-weighted exchange rate over the span from January 1, 1999 to March 31, 2004. The results of cointegration tests show that there is no co-movement between the said variables for most of the examined firms. On the issue of causation, the evidences are mixed. In some cases causation runs from stock prices to exchange rate whereas for some firms’ stock prices are affected by the changes in trade-weighted exchange rate. However, the analysis findings are generally supporting the asset market approach to exchange rate determination that reports no link between the said variables.
|Date of creation:||15 Jan 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1990.
"On the power of Dickey-Fuller tests against fractional alternatives,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
119, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1991. "On the power of Dickey-Fuller tests against fractional alternatives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 155-160, February.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992.
"Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Exchange Rates and the Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 960-71, December.
- Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & Irandoust, Manuchehr, 2002. "On the Causality between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices: A Note," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 197-203, April.
- Solnik, Bruno, 1987. " Using Financial Prices to Test Exchange Rate Models: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 141-49, March.
- Li Lian Ong & H. Y. Izan, 1999. "Stocks and currencies: are they related?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(5), pages 523-532.
- Chow, Edward H & Lee, Wayne Y & Solt, Michael E, 1997. "The Exchange-Rate Risk Exposure of Asset Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(1), pages 105-23, January.
- Husain, Fazal & Mahmood, Tariq, 2001.
"The Stock Market and the Economy in Pakistan,"
4215, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Issam Abdalla & Victor Murinde, 1997. "Exchange rate and stock price interactions in emerging financial markets: evidence on India, Korea, Pakistan and the Philippines," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 25-35.
- Smith, C. E., 1992. "Stock markets and the exchange rate: A multi-country approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 607-629.
- Calvo, Guillermo A & Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1977. "A Model of Exchange Rate Determination under Currency Substitution and Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 617-25, June.
- Granger, Clive W.J. & Huang, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin W., 1998.
"A Bivariate Causality between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Recent Asia Flu,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
qt9bk607p6, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Granger, Clive W. J. & Huangb, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin-Wei, 2000. "A bivariate causality between stock prices and exchange rates: evidence from recent Asianflu," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 337-354.
- Naeem Muhammad & Abdul Rasheed, 2002. "Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Are they Related? Evidence from South Asian Countries," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 41(4), pages 535-550.
- Driskill, Robert, 1980. "Exchange Rate Dynamics, Portfolio Balance, and Relative Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(4), pages 776-83, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:27209. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.