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The view from here: outlook and monetary policy

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  • Williams, John C.

    () (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

Abstract

The U.S. economy is likely to reach the Federal Reserve’s maximum employment goal later this year. Although inflation has remained persistently low, it is expected to return to the Fed’s 2% target over the next few years. Due to the lags between monetary policy’s implementation and its effects, the time is coming to take the first step toward normalizing monetary policy by raising short-term interest rates. The following is adapted from a presentation by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the CFA Society Hawaii on March 5, 2015.

Suggested Citation

  • Williams, John C., 2015. "The view from here: outlook and monetary policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:00048
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    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2015/march/monetary-policy-speech-federal-funds-rate-normalization/el2015-08.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn, 2014. "Downward Nominal Wage Rigidities Bend the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(S2), pages 51-93, October.
    2. Daly, Mary C. & Hobijn, Bart, 2015. "Why is wage growth so slow?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Tomas Havranek & Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Transmission Lags of Monetary Policy: A Meta-Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(4), pages 39-76, December.
    4. Milton Friedman, 1961. "The Lag in Effect of Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69, pages 447-447.
    5. Michael D. Bordo & Athanasios Orphanides, 2013. "The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bord08-1.
    6. Zheng Liu & Justin Weidner, 2011. "Does headline inflation converge to core?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue aug1.
    7. Gust, Christopher & Leduc, Sylvain & Vigfusson, Robert, 2010. "Trade integration, competition, and the decline in exchange-rate pass-through," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 309-324, April.
    8. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage-Free Model of Nominal and Real Bond Yields," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 143-178, September.
    9. Charles L. Evans & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2011. "What are the implications of rising commodity prices for inflation and monetary policy?," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May.
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