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Measures of Monetary Policy Stance: The Case of Pakistan

Author

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  • Sajawal Khan

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

  • Abdul Qayyum

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

Abstract

In this paper we construct two measures of the monetary policy stance. The stance of monetary policy, regarded as a quantitative measure of whether the policy is too tight, neutral, or too loose relative to objectives of stable prices and output growth, is useful and important for at least two reasons. First, it helps the authority (central bank) to determine the course of monetary policy needed to keep the objective (goals) within the target range. Secondly, a quantitative measure of the stance is important for an empirical study of the transmission of monetary policy actions through the economy. Measuring the stance of the monetary policy free from any criticism, however, is not an easy task. As pointed out by Gecchetti (1994), “there seems to be no way to measure monetary actions that does not raise serious objections”. Our results show that an individual coefficient Monetary Condition Index (MCI) performs better than both the summarised MCI coefficient and the Overall measure proposed by Bernanke and Mihov (1998). The results show that in the 21-year period from 1984 to 2004, the demand shocks have dominated for about eight years. The MCI (IS-Individual coefficient) can explain six of them. However, it indicates the negative demand shock in two years as neutral. The other two measures, however, fail to capture demand shocks most of the time. This analysis suggests that the MCI (IS-Individual coefficient) plays an important role in determining output and inflation when the economy is not dominated by supply shocks. The results also show that supply shocks are dominant in the case of Pakistan. Furthermore, the exchange rate channel is more important than the interest rate channel.

Suggested Citation

  • Sajawal Khan & Abdul Qayyum, 2007. "Measures of Monetary Policy Stance: The Case of Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2007:39, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:39
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    Cited by:

    1. Benish Naseem, 2017. "The Impact of Demand Management Policies On Domestic and Foreign Direct Investment in Case of Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 6(4), pages 175-184, December.
    2. Aadil Nakhoda, 2014. "The Influence of Industry Financial Composition on the Exports from Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 10, pages 21-49.
    3. Asaad, Zeravan, 2014. "The Economic determinants of foreign direct investment inward to Iraq for period (2004-2011)," MPRA Paper 103523, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Apr 2014.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy Measures; Monetary Condition Index; Composite Measures;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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