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Prognoseleistung von Fruhindikatoren: Die Bedeutung von Fruhindikatoren fur Konjunk-turprognosen - Eine Analyse fur Deutschland

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  • Hinze, Jorg

Abstract

Das Papier untersucht die Rolle von Frühindikatoren bei der Erstellung von Konjunkturprognosen. Gegenstand der Analyse sind die Fragen: Welche Kriterien sollten Frühindikatoren generell erfüllen bzw. was sollten Frühindikatoren leisten? Inwieweit erfüllen die gängigen Indikatoren diese Anforderungen? Wie ist die Prognosegüte der verschiedenen Frühindikatoren zu beurteilen? Die theoretischen Überlegungen und ökonometrischen Untersuchungen kommen zu dem Ergebnis, dass die gängigen Frühindikatoren die in sie gesetzten Erwartungen nur eingeschränkt erfüllen können. Der Verlauf einzelner Frühindikatoren lässt keine eindeutigen Schlußfolgerungen auf die reale Wirtschaftsentwicklung zu und der Vorlauf der Frühindikatoren vor der realen Entwicklung beträgt bestenfalls einige Monate. Für die Erstellung von Konjunkturprognosen, die in der Regel einen Zeitraum von mehr als einem Jahr bis zu zwei Jahren umfassen, bedeutet das, dass Frühindikatoren allenfalls einen kleinen Ausschnitt abdecken können. Sie sind vor allem wertvoll für die Diagnose am "aktuellen Rand" und für Kurzfristprognosen. Prognosen für die Zeit darüber hinaus müssen sich nach wie vor vor allem auf die Analyse der Rahmenbedingungen stützen.

Suggested Citation

  • Hinze, Jorg, 2003. "Prognoseleistung von Fruhindikatoren: Die Bedeutung von Fruhindikatoren fur Konjunk-turprognosen - Eine Analyse fur Deutschland," Discussion Paper Series 26253, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:hwwadp:26253
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.26253
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kholodilin Konstantin Arkadievich & Siliverstovs Boriss, 2006. "On the Forecasting Properties of the Alternative Leading Indicators for the German GDP: Recent Evidence," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 226(3), pages 234-259, June.
    2. repec:diw:diwwpp:dp664 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Konstantin Arkadievich Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs & Stefan Kooths, 2008. "A Dynamic Panel Data Approach to the Forecasting of the GDP of German Länder," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 195-207.
    4. Akalan, Rodi & Brink, Siegrun & Icks, Annette & Wolter, Hans-Jürgen, 2023. "Bedrohungen und Chancen frühzeitig erkennen: Entwicklung eines Früherkennungskonzepts," IfM-Materialien 303, Institut für Mittelstandsforschung (IfM) Bonn.
    5. Katja Rietzler & Sabine Stephan, 2012. "Monthly recession predictions in real time: A density forecast approach for German industrial production," IMK Working Paper 94-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

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