IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpma/0012021.html

Leading Indicators of Euroland Business Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Ulrich Fritsche

    (German Institute for Economic Research DIW Berlin)

  • Felix Marklein

    (Humboldt University Berlin)

Abstract

The introduction of a common monetary policy in eleven European countries increased the need for leading indicators for that area. A reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference series. (2) The relation between the reference series and the indicator should be statistically significant and stable over time. (3) The inclusion of the indicator in out-of-sample forecasting procedures should improve the predictive power. Our analysis deals with tests for these requirements applied to Euroland data. We use frequency domain analysis, Granger-causality tests and out-of sample forecasts. Only a few indicators pass all tests, while the non-monetary indicators perform best.

Suggested Citation

  • Ulrich Fritsche & Felix Marklein, 2001. "Leading Indicators of Euroland Business Cycles," Macroeconomics 0012021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0012021
    Note: Type of Document - PDF; prepared on IBM PC; pages: 33 ; figures: included. We would like to reduce our mailing and xerox cost by posting it.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/mac/papers/0012/0012021.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Władysław Milo & Zuzanna Wośko, 2005. "Are Leading Indicators a Useful Tool for Predicting Business Cycles? The Polish Experience," FindEcon Chapters: Forecasting Financial Markets and Economic Decision-Making, in: Władysław Milo & Piotr Wdowiński (ed.), Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica nr 192/2005 - Issues in Modeling, Forecasting and Decision-Making in Financial Markets, edition 1, volume 127, chapter 1, pages 5-25, University of Lodz.
    2. Radoslaw Kurach, 2012. "Stocks, Commodities And Business Cycle Fluctuations – Seeking The Diversification Benefits," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 7(4), pages 101-116, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
    • L70 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0012021. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: EconWPA The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask EconWPA to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.