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Evaluation and development of confidence indicators based on harmonised business and consumer surveys (Study contracted to IFO, Munich)

Author

Listed:
  • G. Goldrian
  • J.D. Lindbauer
  • G. Nerb
  • B. Ulrich

Abstract

The Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN) conducts a number of surveys within the framework of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys. This programme was launched in 1962 with the industrial survey, and since then there has been a spectacular growth of business and consumer surveys in the EU. At present five surveys are conducted on a monthly basis: Industry, Consumers, Retail Trade, Construction and Service Sector. In addition, twice a year data for a harmonised investment survey is collected and published. Finally, the quarterly EconomicSurvey International (ESI) provides us with an assessment of the world-wide economic situation by 500 experts in 60 countries.All indicators must be revised from time to time in order to validate their explanatory properties. Therefore, structural economic changes demand periodic revisions of the indicators in order to explain the economic reality.This study contracted to IFO shows that although there is some room for improvement, the current indicators still seem to be quite adequate. The study contains four main suggestions which will be extensively tested by DG ECFIN in order to evaluate the convenience of adopting each one of them for an eventual overhaul of the Economic Sentiment Indicator in the near future.

Suggested Citation

  • G. Goldrian & J.D. Lindbauer & G. Nerb & B. Ulrich, 2001. "Evaluation and development of confidence indicators based on harmonised business and consumer surveys (Study contracted to IFO, Munich)," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 151, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0151
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Stephan Sauer & Jan‐Egbert Sturm, 2007. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand European Central Bank Monetary Policy," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(3), pages 375-398, August.
    2. Georg Goldrian, 2001. "Early indicators derived from survey data: adequate construction design and forecasting quality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(22), pages 32-36, December.
    3. Hansson, Jesper & Jansson, Per & Löf, Mårten, 2003. "Business Survey Data: Do They Help in Forecasting the Macro Economy?," Working Papers 84, National Institute of Economic Research.
    4. Čižmešija Mirjana & Sorić Petar & Lolić Ivana, 2017. "The interrelationship between media reports and the recession in Croatia," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 3(1), pages 16-34, June.
    5. Hansson, Jesper & Jansson, Per & Lof, Marten, 2005. "Business survey data: Do they help in forecasting GDP growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 377-389.
    6. Giancarlo Bruno & Marco Malgarini, 2002. "An Indicator of Economic Sentiment for the Italian Economy," ISAE Working Papers 28, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    7. Hinze, Jorg, 2003. "Prognoseleistung von Fruhindikatoren: Die Bedeutung von Fruhindikatoren fur Konjunk-turprognosen - Eine Analyse fur Deutschland," Discussion Paper Series 26253, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    8. Hinze, Jörg, 2003. "Prognoseleistung von Frühindikatoren: Die Bedeutung von Frühindikatoren für Konjunkturprognosen - Eine Analyse für Deutschland," HWWA Discussion Papers 236, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    9. Stephan Sauer & Jan‐Egbert Sturm, 2007. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand European Central Bank Monetary Policy," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(3), pages 375-398, August.
    10. Andreas Jonsson & Staffan Lindén, 2009. "The quest for the best consumer confidence indicator," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 372, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    11. Jonsson, Andreas & Lindén, Staffan, 2009. "The quest for the best consumer confidence indicator," MPRA Paper 25515, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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