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Bedrohungen und Chancen frühzeitig erkennen: Entwicklung eines Früherkennungskonzepts

Author

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  • Akalan, Rodi
  • Brink, Siegrun
  • Icks, Annette
  • Wolter, Hans-Jürgen

Abstract

Der Mittelstand ist derzeit mit vielfältigen Krisen konfrontiert. Eine frühe Erkennung relevanter Herausforderungen und Chancen ermöglicht es den mittelständischen Unternehmen und der Wirtschaftspolitik, sich darauf vorzubereiten und die geeigneten Rahmenbedingungen zu setzen. Gegenwärtig erfolgt die Früherkennung zumeist anhand von Konjunkturindikatoren, die i.d.R. anhand konkreter Zahlenwerte Rückschlüsse auf die zukünftige Wirtschaftsentwicklung ziehen. Eine systematische Auswertung wirtschaftsrelevanter Textdaten erfolgt nicht. Hier setzt das in der vorliegenden Studie entwickelte innovative Früherkennungskonzept an, das KI-gestützt Textdaten aus Medien und Wirtschaft effizient analysiert und Themen extrahiert. Mithilfe von Praxistests zeigen wir, dass das Konzept zuverlässig funktioniert und relevante Themen frühzeitig erkennen kann.

Suggested Citation

  • Akalan, Rodi & Brink, Siegrun & Icks, Annette & Wolter, Hans-Jürgen, 2023. "Bedrohungen und Chancen frühzeitig erkennen: Entwicklung eines Früherkennungskonzepts," IfM-Materialien 303, Institut für Mittelstandsforschung (IfM) Bonn.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifmmat:280979
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hinze, Jörg, 2003. "Prognoseleistung von Frühindikatoren: Die Bedeutung von Frühindikatoren für Konjunkturprognosen - Eine Analyse für Deutschland," HWWA Discussion Papers 236, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    2. Le Mezo, Helena & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo, 2020. "Using information in newspaper articles as an indicator of real economic activity," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 2.
    3. Hinze, Jorg, 2003. "Prognoseleistung von Fruhindikatoren: Die Bedeutung von Fruhindikatoren fur Konjunk-turprognosen - Eine Analyse fur Deutschland," Discussion Paper Series 26253, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    4. Anja Rossen, 2012. "Konjunkturschlaglicht: Frühindikatoren: gute Vorlaufeigenschaften," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 92(8), pages 575-576, August.
    5. Chengyu Huang & Sean Simpson & Daria Ulybina & Agustin Roitman, 2019. "News-based Sentiment Indicators," IMF Working Papers 2019/273, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Früherkennung; Themen; Topic Modeling; Maschinelles Lernen; early detection; topics; topic modeling; machine learning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M20 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - General
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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