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The Increase in Inflation Compensation: What’s Up?

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  • Jens H. E. Christensen

Abstract

Supply and demand imbalances associated with the COVID-19 pandemic have contributed to a sharp increase in price inflation since early 2021. In response, market-based measures of short-term inflation compensation have risen sharply in the United States. Survey-based measures suggest that this has not affected longer-term inflation expectations. However, analyzing the difference between market prices of standard and inflation-indexed government bonds provides tentative indications that investors have raised their 10-year inflation expectations since spring 2021 to levels above their historical range.

Suggested Citation

  • Jens H. E. Christensen, 2022. "The Increase in Inflation Compensation: What’s Up?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(18), pages 1-06, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:94460
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2015. "Estimating Shadow-Rate Term Structure Models with Near-Zero Yields," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 226-259.
    2. Adam Hale Shapiro, 2022. "How Much Do Supply and Demand Drive Inflation?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(15), pages 1-06, June.
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    2. Bonaparte, Yosef & Fabozzi, Frank J. & Peron, Matt, 2025. "Measuring transitory inflation: Implications for monetary policy and stock market volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).

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