IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/revfin/v16y2007i4p350-362.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Nonlinear duration dependence in stock market cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Harman, Yvette S.
  • Zuehlke, Thomas W.

Abstract

We reexamine duration dependence in stock market cycles using a generalized Weibull model. Recent empirical work by Cochran and DeFina [Cochran, S. J., & DeFina, R. H. (1995). Duration dependence in the U.S. stock market cycle: A parametric approach. Applied Financial Economics, 5, 309–318.], who use a chronology of stock market cycles to estimate a Weibull hazard model, shows duration dependence in stock prices. They find evidence of duration dependence in prewar market expansions and postwar market contractions. We update their postwar sample, then use a more flexible model that finds evidence of duration dependence for all prewar and postwar samples. The generalized Weibull model is shown to be statistically superior to the conventional Weibull model for all samples except prewar expansions.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Harman, Yvette S. & Zuehlke, Thomas W., 2007. "Nonlinear duration dependence in stock market cycles," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 350-362.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:revfin:v:16:y:2007:i:4:p:350-362
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1058-3300(06)00044-9
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sichel, Daniel E, 1991. "Business Cycle Duration Dependence: A Parametric Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(2), pages 254-260, May.
    2. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    3. Thomas Zuehlke, 2003. "Estimation of a Tobit model with unknown censoring threshold," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(10), pages 1163-1169.
    4. Zuehlke, Thomas W, 2003. "Business Cycle Duration Dependence Reconsidered," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(4), pages 564-569, October.
    5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number stoc93-1.
    6. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn Rudebusch & Daniel Sichel, 1993. "Further Evidence on Business-Cycle Duration Dependence," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 255-284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W. (ed.), 1993. "Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226774886.
    8. John G. Cragg & Russell S. Uhler, 1970. "The Demand for Automobiles," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 3(3), pages 386-406, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Valeriy Zakamulin & Javier Giner, 2024. "Optimal trend-following rules in two-state regime-switching models," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(4), pages 327-348, July.
    2. Vitor Castro, 2013. "The Portuguese stock market cycle: Chronology and duration dependence," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2013(1), pages 1-23.
    3. Maryam Akbari Nasiri, 2020. "How Long Do Housing Cycles Last? A Duration Analysis For Emerging Economies," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 23(2), pages 179-200, July.
    4. Xiao-Lin Li & Yi-Na Li & Lu Bai, 2019. "Stock Market Cycle and Business Cycle in China: Evidence from a Bootstrap Rolling Window Approach," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 17, pages 35-50, August.
    5. Valeriy Zakamulin, 2023. "Not all bull and bear markets are alike: insights from a five-state hidden semi-Markov model," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(1), pages 1-25, March.
    6. Giner, Javier & Zakamulin, Valeriy, 2023. "A regime-switching model of stock returns with momentum and mean reversion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    7. Si, Deng-Kui & Liu, Xi-Hua & Kong, Xianli, 2019. "The comovement and causality between stock market cycle and business cycle in China: Evidence from a wavelet analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 17-30.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vitor Castro, 2015. "The Portuguese business cycle: chronology and duration dependence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 325-342, August.
    2. Castro, Vítor, 2010. "The duration of economic expansions and recessions: More than duration dependence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 347-365, March.
    3. Rose Cunningham & Ilan Kolet, 2007. "Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada," Staff Working Papers 07-2, Bank of Canada.
    4. Vitor Castro, 2013. "The duration of business cycle expansions and contractions: are there change-points in duration dependence?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 511-544, April.
    5. Vitor Castro, 2013. "The Portuguese stock market cycle: Chronology and duration dependence," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2013(1), pages 1-23.
    6. Corrado Di Guilmi & Edoardo Gaffeo & Mauro Gallegati & Antonio Palestrini, 2004. "International evidence on business cycle magnitude dependence," Papers cond-mat/0401495, arXiv.org.
    7. Iiboshi, Hirokuni, 2007. "Duration dependence of the business cycle in Japan: A Bayesian analysis of extended Markov switching model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 86-111, January.
    8. Chang-Jin Kim & Chris Murray, 1999. "Permanent and Transitory Nature of Recessions," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0041, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    9. Clements, Michael P & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2003. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterization and Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 196-211, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:revfin:v:16:y:2007:i:4:p:350-362. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620170 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.