IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v49y2017i8p823-843.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Explaining and forecasting bank loans. Good times and crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Grégory Levieuge

Abstract

This article aims to develop a parsimonious model to explain and forecast bank loans to nonfinancial companies during calm periods as well as in situations of financial turmoil. It focuses on the French context, over a period including financial, banking and sovereign debt crises. Theoretical views and intuitions led us to gauge the marginal informational content of a large set of leading indicators in VAR and VECM models, and to investigate potential nonlinearity in credit dynamics. In accordance with firms and banks’ balance sheet effects, the growth rate of equity prices appears to be one of the most interesting leading indicator as well as a significant threshold variable for explaining regime switching. However, it appears difficult to accurately predict the right credit dynamics regimes. A simple VAR model finally performs better.

Suggested Citation

  • Grégory Levieuge, 2017. "Explaining and forecasting bank loans. Good times and crisis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(8), pages 823-843, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:8:p:823-843
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2016.1208350
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2016.1208350
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036846.2016.1208350?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael R King, 2010. "Mapping capital and liquidity requirements to bank lending spreads," BIS Working Papers 324, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Babecký, Jan & Havránek, Tomáš & Matějů, Jakub & Rusnák, Marek & Šmídková, Kateřina & Vašíček, Bořek, 2014. "Banking, debt, and currency crises in developed countries: Stylized facts and early warning indicators," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 1-17.
    3. Todd Clark & Michael McCracken, 2012. "Reality Checks and Comparisons of Nested Predictive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 53-66.
    4. Hempell, Hannah S. & Kok, Christoffer, 2010. "The impact of supply constraints on bank lending in the euro area - crisis induced crunching?," Working Paper Series 1262, European Central Bank.
    5. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
    6. Christoffersen, Peter F & Diebold, Francis X, 1998. "Cointegration and Long-Horizon Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 450-458, October.
    7. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    8. Philip R Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2011. "The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(1), pages 77-110, April.
    9. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Maddaloni, Angela & Peydró, José-Luis, 2015. "Trusting the bankers: A new look at the credit channel of monetary policy," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 18(4), pages 979-1002.
    10. Leonardo Gambacorta & Paolo Emilio Mistrulli, 2014. "Bank Heterogeneity and Interest Rate Setting: What Lessons Have We Learned since Lehman Brothers?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 753-778, June.
    11. Taylor, Alan M. & Schularick, Moritz & Jordà , Òscar, 2011. "When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 8678, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Darracq-Paries, Matthieu & De Santis, Roberto A., 2015. "A non-standard monetary policy shock: The ECB's 3-year LTROs and the shift in credit supply," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1-34.
    13. Kashyap, Anil K & Stein, Jeremy C & Wilcox, David W, 1993. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 78-98, March.
    14. Anil K Kashyap & Owen A. Lamont & Jeremy C. Stein, 1994. "Credit Conditions and the Cyclical Behavior of Inventories," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 565-592.
    15. Claudio Borio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: what have we learned and what are the policy implications?," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.), Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 2, pages 10-35, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Becker, Bo & Ivashina, Victoria, 2014. "Cyclicality of credit supply: Firm level evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 76-93.
    17. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    18. Del Giovane, Paolo & Eramo, Ginette & Nobili, Andrea, 2011. "Disentangling demand and supply in credit developments: A survey-based analysis for Italy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2719-2732, October.
    19. Duy, Timothy A. & Thoma, Mark A., 1998. "Modeling and Forecasting Cointegrated Variables: Some Practical Experience," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 291-307, May.
    20. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Sergio Mayordomo & Juan Ignacio Peña & Juan Romo, 2011. "The effect of liquidity on the price discovery process in credit derivatives markets in times of financial distress," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(9-10), pages 851-881, November.
    22. Douglas Elliott & Mr. Andre O Santos, 2012. "Assessing the Cost of Financial Regulation," IMF Working Papers 2012/233, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Delis, Manthos D. & Kouretas, Georgios P. & Tsoumas, Chris, 2014. "Anxious periods and bank lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-13.
    24. Stephen D. Oliner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1996. "Is there a broad credit channel for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-13.
    25. Grégory Levieuge, 2014. "Cohérence et contenu prédictif des indicateurs du Bank Lending Survey pour la France," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(2), pages 245-287.
    26. Bassett, William F. & Chosak, Mary Beth & Driscoll, John C. & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2014. "Changes in bank lending standards and the macroeconomy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 23-40.
    27. Grégory LEVIEUGE, 2009. "Annexes détaillées de l'article "Bank Capital Channel and Counter-Cyclical Prudential Regulation in a DSGE Model," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 232, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    28. Krainer, Robert E., 2014. "Monetary policy and bank lending in the Euro area: Is there a stock market channel or an interest rate channel?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 283-298.
    29. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1993. "Economic Activity and the Short-term Credit Markets: An Analysis of Prices and Quantities," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(2), pages 193-284.
    30. Ferrara, Laurent & Marsilli, Clément & Ortega, Juan-Pablo, 2014. "Forecasting growth during the Great Recession: is financial volatility the missing ingredient?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 44-50.
    31. James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
    32. Grégory Levieuge, 2009. "The Bank Capital Channel and Counter-Cyclical Prudential Regulation in a DSGE model," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 75(4), pages 425-460.
    33. Kok, Christoffer & Rossi, Carlotta & Marqués-Ibáñez, David, 2009. "Modelling loans to non-financial corporations in the euro area," Working Paper Series 989, European Central Bank.
    34. Calza, Alessandro & Manrique, Marta & Sousa, Joao, 2006. "Credit in the euro area: An empirical investigation using aggregate data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 211-226, May.
    35. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    36. Bezemer, Dirk & Grydaki, Maria, 2014. "Financial fragility in the Great Moderation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 169-177.
    37. Mr. Prakash Kannan, 2010. "Credit Conditions and Recoveries from Recessions Associated with Financial Crises," IMF Working Papers 2010/083, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Meh, Césaire A. & Moran, Kevin, 2010. "The role of bank capital in the propagation of shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 555-576, March.
    39. Nathan S. Balke, 2000. "Credit and Economic Activity: Credit Regimes and Nonlinear Propagation of Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 344-349, May.
    40. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
    41. Stephen Cecchetti & Michael R King & James Yetman, 2011. "Weathering the financial crisis: good policy or good luck?," BIS Working Papers 351, Bank for International Settlements.
    42. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Nicola Rubino & Inmaculada Vilchez, 2024. "Modelling Loans to Non-Financial Corporations in the Eurozone: A Long-Memory Approach," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(3), pages 231-254, August.
    2. Thi Hong Hoang & Călin Gurău & Amine Lahiani & Thuy-Luu Seran, 2018. "Do crises impact capital structure? A study of French micro-enterprises," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 181-199, January.
    3. Thi van Hoang & Călin Gurău & Amine Lahiani & Thuy-Luu Seran, 2017. "Do crises impact capital structure? A study of French micro-enterprises," Post-Print hal-03608784, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    2. G.Levieuge, 2015. "the coherence and the predictive content of the French Bank Lending Survey’s indicators (in French)," Working papers 567, Banque de France.
    3. Pacicco, Fausto & Serati, Massimiliano & Venegoni, Andrea, 2022. "The Euro Area credit crunch conundrum: Was it demand or supply driven?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    4. Matthieu Darracq Paries, 2018. "Financial frictions and monetary policy conduct," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph18-01 edited by Ferhat Mihoubi.
    5. Gabriel Rodríguez & Carlos Guevara, 2018. "The Role of Loan Supply Shocks in Pacific Alliance Countries: A TVP-VAR-SV Approach," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2018-467, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    6. Andrea Orame, 2020. "The role of bank supply in the Italian credit market: evidence from a new regional survey," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1279, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Simon Gilchrist & Benoit Mojon, 2018. "Credit Risk in the Euro Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 118-158, February.
    8. Eleni Iliopulos & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2012. "L'intermédiation financière dans l'analyse macroéconomique : le défi de la crise," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 451(1), pages 91-130.
    9. Köhler-Ulbrich, Petra & Hempell, Hannah S. & Scopel, Silvia, 2016. "The euro area bank lending survey," Occasional Paper Series 179, European Central Bank.
    10. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Yannick Lucotte & Nicolas Reigl, 2022. "The evolution and heterogeneity of credit procyclicality in Central and Eastern Europe," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 911-942, January.
    11. Sangyup Choi, 2018. "Bank Lending Standards, Loan Demand, and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from the Emerging Market Bank Loan Officer Survey," Working papers 2018rwp-126, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    12. Leonardo Gambacorta & Carlotta Rossi, 2007. "Modelling bank lending in the euro area: A non-linear approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 650, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2016. "Finance-augmented business cycles: A robustness check," Papers 1038, World Trade Institute.
    14. Filardo, Andrew J. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2020. "The cross-border credit channel and lending standards surveys," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    15. Mundra, Sruti & Bicchal, Motilal, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of monetary policy and financial accelerator: Evidence from India," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    16. Khosravi, Taha, 2015. "The Impact of a Low Interest Rate Environment: Empirical Evidence from the Euro Area Bank Lending Survey," MPRA Paper 67363, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Octavio Fernández-Amador & Martin Gächter & Friedrich Sindermann, 2016. "Finance-augmented business cycles: A robustness check," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(1), pages 132-144.
    18. Kok, Christoffer & Gross, Marco & Żochowski, Dawid, 2016. "The impact of bank capital on economic activity - evidence from a mixed-cross-section GVAR model," Working Paper Series 1888, European Central Bank.
    19. Meller, Barbara & Metiu, Norbert, 2017. "The synchronization of credit cycles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 98-111.
    20. repec:hal:psewpa:halshs-00744047 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Samarina, Anna & Zhang, Lu & Bezemer, Dirk, 2017. "Credit cycle coherence in the eurozone: Was there a euro effect?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 77-98.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:8:p:823-843. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.