IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/eurjfi/v14y2008i3p195-210.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dividends, prices and the present value model: firm-level evidence

Author

Listed:
  • John Goddard
  • David Mcmillan
  • John Wilson

Abstract

Recent stock price movements have led to a re-examination of the present value model. Typically, empirical studies have employed a long span of US stock market index data, and have attributed a failure to detect cointegration to the presence of bubbles. This study considers UK firm-level data, and implements panel unit root and cointegration tests. Recent panel tests that allow for cross-sectional dependence control for factors such as bubbles that may result in temporary deviations from the long-run price-dividend relationship. The panel test results largely support the present value model, yielding evidence of cointegration between real prices and dividends.

Suggested Citation

  • John Goddard & David Mcmillan & John Wilson, 2008. "Dividends, prices and the present value model: firm-level evidence," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 195-210.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:14:y:2008:i:3:p:195-210
    DOI: 10.1080/13518470801890792
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13518470801890792
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/13518470801890792?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Randolph B. Cohen & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2003. "The Value Spread," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 609-641, April.
    2. Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2002. "What Drives Firm‐Level Stock Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 233-264, February.
    3. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:5:p:1563-1587 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    5. Boyan Jovanovic & Jeremy Greenwood, 1999. "The Information-Technology Revolution and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 116-122, May.
    6. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 858, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    7. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update," NBER Working Papers 8221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Nathan S. Balke & Mark E. Wohar, 2002. "Low-Frequency Movements in Stock Prices: A State-Space Decomposition," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 649-667, November.
    9. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    10. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    11. Lee, Bong-Soo, 1995. "The Response of Stock Prices to Permanent and Temporary Shocks to Dividends," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 1-22, March.
    12. Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2004. "The present value model of U.S. stock prices redux: a new testing strategy and some evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 208-223, May.
    13. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
    14. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    15. Ng, Serena & Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Estimation and inference in nearly unbalanced nearly cointegrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 53-81, July.
    16. Chris Brooks & Apostolos Katsaris, 2003. "Rational Speculative Bubbles: An Empirical Investigation of the London Stock Exchange," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(4), pages 319-346, October.
    17. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    18. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:3:p:661-76 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Hall, Stephen G & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1999. "Detecting Periodically Collapsing Bubbles: A Markov-Switching Unit Root Test," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 143-154, March-Apr.
    20. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2002. "The Equity Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 637-659, April.
    21. D Marinucci & Peter M Robinson, 2001. "Semiparametric Fractional Cointegration Analysis," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 420, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    22. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    23. Kyung‐So Im & Junsoo Lee & Margie Tieslau, 2005. "Panel LM Unit‐root Tests with Level Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 393-419, June.
    24. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2004. "On Markov error-correction models, with an application to stock prices and dividends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 69-88.
    26. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1994. "On the power of unit root tests against fractional alternatives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-5, May.
    27. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests In Cointegrated Panels," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 727-731, November.
    28. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2004. "Fractional cointegration and tests of present value models," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 245-258.
    29. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1991. "On the power of Dickey-Fuller tests against fractional alternatives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 155-160, February.
    30. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
    31. van Norden Simon & Vigfusson Robert, 1998. "Avoiding the Pitfalls: Can Regime-Switching Tests Reliably Detect Bubbles?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-24, April.
    32. Kanas, Angelos, 2005. "Nonlinearity in the stock price-dividend relation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 583-606, June.
    33. Timmermann, Allan, 1995. "Cointegration Tests of Present Value Models with a Time-Varying Discount Factor," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 17-31, Jan.-Marc.
    34. van Norden, Simon, 1996. "Regime Switching as a Test for Exchange Rate Bubbles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 219-251, May-June.
    35. Marinucci, D & Robinson, Peter M., 2001. "Semiparametric fractional cointegration analysis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2269, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    36. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:2:p:609-642 is not listed on IDEAS
    37. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L.A. & de Gracia, F. Perez, 2005. "A test for rational bubbles in the NASDAQ stock index: A fractionally integrated approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2633-2654, October.
    38. Marinucci, D. & Robinson, P. M., 2001. "Semiparametric fractional cointegration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 225-247, November.
    39. Nasseh, Alireza & Strauss, Jack, 2004. "Stock prices and the dividend discount model: did their relation break down in the 1990s?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 191-207, May.
    40. Koustas, Zisimos & Serletis, Apostolos, 2005. "Rational bubbles or persistent deviations from market fundamentals?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2523-2539, October.
    41. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. David G. McMillan, 2010. "Present Value Model, Bubbles and Returns Predictability: Sector‐Level Evidence," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(5‐6), pages 668-686, June.
    2. McMillan, David G., 2009. "Are share prices still too high?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 223-232, September.
    3. Sudatta Bharati Mohapatra & Nirmal Chandra Kar, 2022. "Revisiting the Long-Run Dynamic Linkage between Dividends and Share Price with Advanced Panel Econometrics Techniques," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-19, October.
    4. David G. McMillan, 2010. "Present Value Model, Bubbles and Returns Predictability: Sector-Level Evidence," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(5-6), pages 668-686.
    5. McMillan, David G., 2019. "Predicting firm level stock returns: Implications for asset pricing and economic links," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 333-351.
    6. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Cheng-Feng & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2014. "Asymmetric dynamics in REIT prices: Further evidence based on quantile regression analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 29-37.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. McMillan, David G., 2007. "Bubbles in the dividend-price ratio? Evidence from an asymmetric exponential smooth-transition model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 787-804, March.
    2. McMillan, David G., 2009. "Are share prices still too high?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 223-232, September.
    3. David G. McMillan, 2009. "Are Uk Share Prices Too High? Fundamental Value Or New Era," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 1-20, January.
    4. David G. McMillan, 2010. "Present Value Model, Bubbles and Returns Predictability: Sector‐Level Evidence," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(5‐6), pages 668-686, June.
    5. David G. McMillan, 2010. "Present Value Model, Bubbles and Returns Predictability: Sector-Level Evidence," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(5-6), pages 668-686.
    6. David G. McMillan, 2010. "Level‐shifts and non‐linearity in US financial ratios," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(2), pages 189-207, May.
    7. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2015. "Are there periodically collapsing bubbles in the REIT markets? New evidence from the US," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 17-31.
    8. Edward Bernard Bastiaan de Rivera y Rivera & Diógenes Manoel Leiva Martin & Emerson Fernandes Marçal & Leonardo Fernando Cruz Basso, 2012. "Present value model between prices and dividends with constant and time-varying expected returns: enterprise-level Brazilian stock market evidence from non-stationary panels," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 9(4), pages 51-86, October.
    9. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Xie, Zixiong, 2017. "Asymmetric adjustment and smooth breaks in dividend yields: Evidence from international stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 339-354.
    10. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Hsu, Chi-Sheng & Xie, Zixong, 2016. "Are there periodically collapsing bubbles in the stock markets? New international evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 442-451.
    11. Vicente Esteve & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & María A. Prats, 2013. "The present value model of US stock prices revisited: long-run evidence with structural breaks, 1871-2010," Working Papers 04/13, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
    12. Vicente Esteve & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & María A. Prats, 2013. "The present value model of U.S. stock prices revisited: long-run evidence with structural breaks, 1871-2010," Working Papers 1305, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    13. McMillan, David G., 2013. "Consumption and stock prices: Evidence from a small international panel," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 76-88.
    14. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    15. McMillan, David G., 2009. "Revisiting dividend yield dynamics and returns predictability: Evidence from a time-varying ESTR model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 870-883, August.
    16. Esteve, Vicente & Navarro-Ibáñez, Manuel & Prats, María A., 2020. "Stock prices, dividends, and structural changes in the long-term: The case of U.S," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    17. Nasseh, Alireza & Strauss, Jack, 2004. "Stock prices and the dividend discount model: did their relation break down in the 1990s?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 191-207, May.
    18. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Reimers, Hans-Eggert & Roffia, Barbara, 2013. "Testing for the existence of a bubble in the stock market," Wismar Discussion Papers 01/2013, Hochschule Wismar, Wismar Business School.
    19. Cuñado, J. & Gil-Alana, L.A. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2012. "Testing for persistent deviations of stock prices to dividends in the Nasdaq index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(20), pages 4675-4685.
    20. Chevillon, Guillaume & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2011. "Learning generates Long Memory," ESSEC Working Papers WP1113, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:14:y:2008:i:3:p:195-210. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/REJF20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.