Testing for the existence of a bubble in the stock market
Are specific developments in stock prices in line with fundamentals or do they reflect a rising bubble? And if the latter result applies, how is it possible to detect a bubble in real time? The answer to this question is of utmost relevance for a number of areas, not least for either financial market participants or for central banks aiming at pursuing a policy of 'leaning against the wind'. In this study, we make use of a sample of 17 OECD industrialised countries and the euro area over the sample period 1969 Q1 - 2008 Q3 and carry out univariate and multivariate panel tests to find evidence of bubbles in the stock market of those countries over the past four decades.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995.
"Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2004. "The present value model of U.S. stock prices redux: a new testing strategy and some evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 208-223, May.
- Simon M. Potter, 1993.
"A Nonlinear Approach to U.S. GNP,"
UCLA Economics Working Papers
693, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Koustas, Zisimos & Serletis, Apostolos, 2005. "Rational bubbles or persistent deviations from market fundamentals?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2523-2539, October.
- Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2005.
"Econometric tests of asset price bubbles: taking stock,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2005-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2008. "Econometric Tests Of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 166-186, 02.
- Refet Gurkaynak, 2005. "Econometric Tests of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock," Finance 0504008, EconWPA.
- Owen Lamont, .
"Earnings and Expected Returns,"
CRSP working papers
345, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Matei Demetrescu & Uwe Hassler & Adina-Ioana Tarcolea, 2006. "Combining Significance of Correlated Statistics with Application to Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(5), pages 647-663, October.
- Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "The Theory of Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(392), pages 746-54, September.
- Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alaña, Luis A., 2000.
"Fractional cointegration and tests of present value models,"
SFB 373 Discussion Papers
2000,15, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2004. "Fractional cointegration and tests of present value models," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 245-258.
- Christophe Hurlin & Valérie Mignon, 2007. "Second Generation Panel Unit Root Tests," Working Papers halshs-00159842, HAL.
- DETKEN Carsten & SMETS Frank, .
"Asset Price Booms and Monetary Policy,"
- Kanas, Angelos, 2005. "Nonlinearity in the stock price-dividend relation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 583-606, June.
- repec:tpr:qjecon:v:102:y:1987:i:3:p:697-700 is not listed on IDEAS
- Banerjee, Anindya, 1999. " Panel Data Unit Roots and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 607-29, Special I.
- Kaddour Hadri, 1999.
"Testing For Stationarity In Heterogeneous Panel Data,"
1999_04, University of Liverpool Management School.
- Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
- Froot, Kenneth A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991.
"Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1189-214, December.
- John Simon, 2003. "Three Australian Asset-price Bubbles," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Anthony Richards & Tim Robinson (ed.), Asset Prices and Monetary Policy Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Cerqueti, Roy & Costantini, Mauro, 2006. "Testing for rational bubbles," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp06030, University of Molise, Dept. EGSeI.
- Chris Brooks & Apostolos Katsaris, 2003. "Rational Speculative Bubbles: An Empirical Investigation of the London Stock Exchange," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(4), pages 319-346, October.
- Nathan S. Balke & Mark E. Wohar, 2002.
"Low-Frequency Movements in Stock Prices: A State-Space Decomposition,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 649-667, November.
- Nathan S. Balke & Mark E. Wohar, 2001. "Low frequency movements in stock prices: a state space decomposition," Working Papers 0001, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002.
"Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
- Tom Doan, . "LEVINLIN: RATS procedure to perform Levin-Lin-Chu test for unit roots in panel data," Statistical Software Components RTS00242, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2009.
"Asset price misalignments and the role of money and credit,"
Working Paper Series
1068, European Central Bank.
- Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans‐Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2010. "Asset Price Misalignments and the Role of Money and Credit," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 377-407, Winter.
- Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:hswwdp:012013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.