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La vulnérabilité au changement climatique entrave‐t‐elle la stabilité financière des économies de l'Afrique subsaharienne?

Author

Listed:
  • Komlan Olakossan Gbegnon
  • Mikémina Pilo
  • Kounagbè Odilon Boris Lokonon

Abstract

Des travaux récents soutiennent l’évidence selon laquelle les dommages et les risques climatiques impactent négativement les performances des entreprises, des institutions bancaires et assimilées. Toutefois, certains auteurs soulignent à l'inverse les mérites des innovations financières induites par la vulnérabilité au changement climatique des économies. S'invitant dans ce débat, la présente recherche analyse l'effet de la vulnérabilité au changement climatique des économies sur la stabilité financière en Afrique subsaharienne. À cet effet, une base de données a été construite à partir de trois sources, notamment les indicateurs de développement dans le monde de la Banque Mondiale, le Fonds Monétaire International (FMI) et la Notre Dame Global Adaptative Initiative (ND‐GAIN). L’étude mobilise une modélisation vectorielle autorégressive structurelle en panel (PSVAR), appliquée à un échantillon de 45 pays couvrant la période de 2004–2023. Les résultats montrent qu'un degré moyen (0,44) de Résumévulnérabilité au changement climatique provoque une fragilisation de 0,25 du système financier des économies de l'Afrique subsaharienne, confirmant ainsi la théorie des externalités financières. Ainsi, l'atteinte des recommandations du réseau pour le verdissement du système financier (NGFS) s'avère impossible à long terme. La promotion des instruments verts dans les politiques de stabilisation financière est fortement conseillée pour les pays de la région. Recent studies support evidence that climate‐related damages and risks negatively affect the performance of firms, banking institutions, and related financial entities. However, some authors highlight, on the contrary, the potential benefits of financial innovations induced by climate vulnerability on the financial stability of countries. Contributing to this debate, this research analyzes the effect of economies' vulnerability to climate change on financial stability in Sub‐Saharan Africa. To this end, a database was constructed from three main sources: World Development Indicators (WDI) of the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), and Notre Dame Global Adaptative Initiative (ND‐GAIN). The study employs a panel structural vector autoregressive model (PSVAR) applied to a sample of 45 countries covering the period 2004–2023. The results show that an average degree (0.44) of climate vulnerability leads to a 0.25 weakening of the financial system in Sub‐Saharan African economies, thereby confirming the theory of financial externalities. Thus, achieving the recommendations of the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) may be unattainable in the long run. Incorporating climate risks and promoting green financial instruments within financial stability policies are therefore strongly recommended for countries in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Komlan Olakossan Gbegnon & Mikémina Pilo & Kounagbè Odilon Boris Lokonon, 2026. "La vulnérabilité au changement climatique entrave‐t‐elle la stabilité financière des économies de l'Afrique subsaharienne?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 38(1), March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:afrdev:v:38:y:2026:i:1:n:e70049
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.70049
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