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Balance Sheet Channel of Monetary Policy and Economic Growth under Fiscal Dominance: Evidence from Pakistan

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  • Shabbir, Safia

Abstract

Using micro data on non-financial listed companies in Pakistan, over the period of 2000-2010, this paper emphasizes over the impact of monetary policy on economic growth through balance sheet channel. At first step, monetary tightening deteriorates the net worth of the firms and leads to cash flow squeeze; of which later affects the economic growth. We find this impact to last for three years over the balance sheets of the firms. Since, industrial sector drives the economic growth; we forecast corporate profitability at the second step. Empirical investigation shows that corporate profitability reverts to its mean at the rate of 25 percent. During Peak, mean reversion is 30 percent while it is 19 percent during trough implying that recession stays relatively longer and economic revival is slow during recessionary phase.

Suggested Citation

  • Shabbir, Safia, 2012. "Balance Sheet Channel of Monetary Policy and Economic Growth under Fiscal Dominance: Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 41496, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:41496
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1994. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(2), pages 309-340.
    2. Michael Kumhof & Ricardo Nunes & Irina Yakadina, 2010. "Simple Monetary Rules under Fiscal Dominance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 63-92, February.
    3. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 2000. "Forecasting Profitability and Earnings," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(2), pages 161-175, April.
    4. Oliner, Stephen D & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 300-309, March.
    5. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    6. Guariglia, Alessandra & Mateut, Simona, 2006. "Credit channel, trade credit channel, and inventory investment: Evidence from a panel of UK firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 2835-2856, October.
    7. Ali Choudhary & Amjad Ali & Shah Hussain & Vasco J. Gabriel, 2012. "Bank Lending and Monetary Shocks: Evidence from a Developing Economy," SBP Working Paper Series 45, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    8. Syed Ozair Ali, 2011. ": Power, Profits and Inflation: A Study of Inflation and Influence in Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 7, pages 11-41.
    9. José Sidaoui, 2003. "Implications of fiscal issues for central banks. Mexico's experience," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Fiscal issues and central banking in emerging economies, volume 20, pages 180-197 Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; monetary transmission; balance sheet channel; forecasting; profitability;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm

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