Modeling the distribution of credit losses with observable and latent factors
This paper develops a flexible and computationally efficient model to estimate the credit loss distribution of the loans in a banking system. We consider a sectorial structure, where default frequencies and the total number of loans are allowed to depend on macroeconomic conditions as well as on unobservable credit risk factors, which can capture contagion effects between sectors. In addition, we also model the distributions of the Exposure at Default and the Loss Given Default. We apply our model to the Spanish credit market, where we find that sectorial default frequencies are affected by a persistent latent factor. Finally, we also identify the potentially riskier sectors and perform stress tests.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2007|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.bde.es/|
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Til Schuermann & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2006. "Visible and hidden risk factors for banks," Staff Reports 252, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Miroslav Misina & David Tessier & Shubhasis Dey, 2006. "Stress Testing the Corporate Loans Portfolio of the Canadian Banking Sector," Staff Working Papers 06-47, Bank of Canada.
- Carlos González-Aguado & Max Bruche, 2006.
"Recovery Rates, Default Probabilities and the Credit Cycle,"
FMG Discussion Papers
dp572, Financial Markets Group.
- Bruche, Max & González-Aguado, Carlos, 2010. "Recovery rates, default probabilities, and the credit cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 754-764, April.
- Max Bruche & Carlos Gonzalez-Aguado, 2006. "Recovery rates, default probabilities and the credit cycle," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24524, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Gabriel Jiménez & Jose A. Lopez & Jesus Saurina, 2009.
"Empirical Analysis of Corporate Credit Lines,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5069-5098, December.
- Gabriel Jiménez & Jose A. Lopez & Jesús Saurina, 2007. "Empirical analysis of corporate credit lines," Working Paper Series 2007-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Gabriel Jiménez & José A. López & Jesús Saurina, 2008. "Empirical analysis of corporate credit lines," Working Papers 0821, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- Alfredo Martín-Oliver & Vicente Salas-Fumás & Jesús Saurina, 2005.
"A test of the law of one price in retail banking,"
0530, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Schuermann, T. & Treutler, B-J. & Weiner, S.M., 2003.
"Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
0330, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August.
- Til Schuermann & Björn-Jakob Treutler & Scott M. Weiner & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2003. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 995, CESifo Group Munich.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Björn-Jakob Treutler & Scott M. Weiner & April, "undated". "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-13, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2002.
"Risk Assessment for Banking Systems,"
79, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Rosenberg, Joshua V. & Schuermann, Til, 2006.
"A general approach to integrated risk management with skewed, fat-tailed risks,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 569-614, March.
- Joshua V. Rosenberg & Til Schuermann, 2004. "A general approach to integrated risk management with skewed, fat-tailed risks," Staff Reports 185, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- C. A.E. Goodhart, 2005. "Financial Regulation, Credit Risk and Financial Stability," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 192(1), pages 118-127, April.
- Gabriel Jiménez & Vicente Salas & Jesús Saurina, 2004.
"Determinants of collateral,"
0420, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- Gordy, Michael B., 2000.
"A comparative anatomy of credit risk models,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 119-149, January.
- Jimenez, Gabriel & Saurina, Jesus, 2004.
"Collateral, type of lender and relationship banking as determinants of credit risk,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 2191-2212, September.
- Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2004. "Collateral, type of lender and relationship banking as determinants of credit risk," Working Papers 0414, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Borag[caron]an Aruoba, S., 2006.
"The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 309-338.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Diebold,Rudebusch,Aruoba 2006 factor model," Statistical Software Components RTZ00047, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2004. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Dynamic Latent Factor Approach," NBER Working Papers 10616, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gordy, Michael B. & Howells, Bradley, 2006. "Procyclicality in Basel II: Can we treat the disease without killing the patient?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 395-417, July.
- Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997.
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-248, April.
- John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, "undated". "Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 1995. "Credit Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ryo Kato, 2003. "Matlab code for Kiyotaki-Moore credit cycles," QM&RBC Codes 113, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 1985. "Testing Linear and Loglinear Regressions against Box-Cox Alternatives," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 499-517, August.
- Giesecke, Kay & Weber, Stefan, 2004. "Cyclical correlations, credit contagion, and portfolio losses," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 3009-3036, December.
- Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 2004. "Cyclical implications of the Basel II capital standards," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 18-31.
- Max Bruche & Carlos González Aguado, 2006. "Recovery Rates, Default Probabilities And The Credit Cycle," Working Papers wp2006_0612, CEMFI.
- Edward Altman & Andrea Resti & Andrea Sironi, 2004. "Default Recovery Rates in Credit Risk Modelling: A Review of the Literature and Empirical Evidence," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 33(2), pages 183-208, 07.
- Fama, Eugene F., 1986. "Term premiums and default premiums in money markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 175-196, September.
- Demchuk, Andriy & Gibson, Rajna, 2006. "Stock Market Performance and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(04), pages 863-887, December.
- Mardi Dungey & Vance L Martin & Adrian R Pagan, 2000. "A multivariate latent factor decomposition of international bond yield spreads," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 697-715.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0709. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (María Beiro. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de España)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.