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Assessing the risk-return trade-off in loans portfolios

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  • Javier Mencía

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

This paper analyses the risk and return of loans portfolios in a joint setting. I develop a model to obtain the distribution of loans returns. I use this model to describe the investment opportunity set of lenders using mean-variance analysis with a Value at Risk constraint. I also obtain closed form expressions for the interest rates that banks should set in compensation for borrowers' credit risk under absence of arbitrage opportunities and I use these rates as a benchmark to interpret actual loans' prices. Finally, I study the risk-return trade-off in an empirical application to the Spanish banking system.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Mencía, 2009. "Assessing the risk-return trade-off in loans portfolios," Working Papers 0911, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0911
    as

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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/09/Fic/dt0911e.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Krivorotov, George, 2023. "Machine learning-based profit modeling for credit card underwriting - implications for credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    2. Deb Narayan Barik & Siddhartha P. Chakrabarty, 2022. "Does Limited Liability Reduce Leveraged Risk?: The Case of Loan Portfolio Management," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-15, November.
    3. Justin A. Sirignano & Gerry Tsoukalas & Kay Giesecke, 2016. "Large-Scale Loan Portfolio Selection," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(6), pages 1239-1255, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit risk; Probability of default; Asset Pricing; Mean-Variance allocation; Stochastic Discount Factor; Value at Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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