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Assessing the risk-return trade-off in loans portfolios

Listed author(s):
  • Javier Mencía

    ()

    (Banco de España)

This paper analyses the risk and return of loans portfolios in a joint setting. I develop a model to obtain the distribution of loans returns. I use this model to describe the investment opportunity set of lenders using mean-variance analysis with a Value at Risk constraint. I also obtain closed form expressions for the interest rates that banks should set in compensation for borrowers' credit risk under absence of arbitrage opportunities and I use these rates as a benchmark to interpret actual loans' prices. Finally, I study the risk-return trade-off in an empirical application to the Spanish banking system.

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File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/09/Fic/dt0911e.pdf
File Function: First version, June 2009
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Paper provided by Banco de España & Working Papers Homepage in its series Working Papers with number 0911.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2009
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0911
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.bde.es/

Web page: http://www.bde.es/bde/en/secciones/informes/Publicaciones_se/docs/
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  1. Koehn, Michael & Santomero, Anthony M, 1980. " Regulation of Bank Capital and Portfolio Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(5), pages 1235-1244, December.
  2. Ricardo Gimeno & José Manuel Marqués, 2008. "Uncertainty and the price of risk in a nominal convergence process," Working Papers 0802, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  3. Harrison, J. Michael & Kreps, David M., 1979. "Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 381-408, June.
  4. Alexander, Gordon J. & Baptista, Alexandre M., 2006. "Does the Basle Capital Accord reduce bank fragility? An assessment of the value-at-risk approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1631-1660, October.
  5. Feder, Gershon, 1980. "A Note on Debt, Assets and Lending under Default Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(01), pages 191-200, March.
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  7. León, à ngel & Mencía, Javier & Sentana, Enrique, 2009. "Parametric Properties of Semi-Nonparametric Distributions, with Applications to Option Valuation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(2), pages 176-192.
  8. Alfredo Martín-Oliver & Vicente Salas-Fumás & Jesús Saurina, 2005. "A test of the law of one price in retail banking," Working Papers 0530, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  9. Antonella Foglia, 2009. "Stress Testing Credit Risk: A Survey of Authorities' Aproaches," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 9-45, September.
  10. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
  11. Edward I. Altman & Brooks Brady & Andrea Resti & Andrea Sironi, 2005. "The Link between Default and Recovery Rates: Theory, Empirical Evidence, and Implications," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 2203-2228, November.
  12. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, 03.
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  14. Gabriel Jiménez & Vicente Salas & Jesús Saurina, 2004. "Determinants of collateral," Working Papers 0420, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  15. Stoughton, Neal M. & Zechner, Josef, 2007. "Optimal capital allocation using RAROC(TM) and EVA(R)," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 312-342, July.
  16. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A., 2007. "Econometric specification of stochastic discount factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 509-530, February.
  17. Chamberlain, Gary, 1983. "A characterization of the distributions that imply mean--Variance utility functions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 185-201, February.
  18. Chirinko, Robert S. & Guill, Gene D., 1991. "A framework for assessing credit risk in depository institutions: Toward regulatory reform," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4-5), pages 785-804, September.
  19. Edward I. Altman, 1996. "Corporate Bond and Commercial Loan Portfolio Analysis," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 96-6, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  20. Jimenez, Gabriel & Saurina, Jesus, 2004. "Collateral, type of lender and relationship banking as determinants of credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 2191-2212, September.
  21. Bertholon, H. & Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2007. "Pricing and Inference with Mixtures of Conditionally Normal Processes," Working papers 188, Banque de France.
  22. Rochet, Jean-Charles, 1992. "Capital requirements and the behaviour of commercial banks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1137-1170, June.
  23. Edward Altman, 1996. "Corporate Bond and Commercial Loan Portfolio Analysis," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 96-41, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  24. Alexander, Gordon J. & Baptista, Alexandre M. & Yan, Shu, 2007. "Mean-variance portfolio selection with `at-risk' constraints and discrete distributions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3761-3781, December.
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