IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/oropre/v64y2016i6p1239-1255.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Large-Scale Loan Portfolio Selection

Author

Listed:
  • Justin A. Sirignano

    (Department of Industrial and Enterprise Systems Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, Illinois 61801)

  • Gerry Tsoukalas

    (The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104)

  • Kay Giesecke

    (Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305)

Abstract

We consider the problem of optimally selecting a large portfolio of risky loans, such as mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, student loans, or business loans. Examples include loan portfolios held by financial institutions and fixed-income investors as well as pools of loans backing mortgage- and asset-backed securities. The size of these portfolios can range from the thousands to even hundreds of thousands. Optimal portfolio selection requires the solution of a high-dimensional nonlinear integer program and is extremely computationally challenging. For larger portfolios, this optimization problem is intractable. We propose an approximate optimization approach that yields an asymptotically optimal portfolio for a broad class of data-driven models of loan delinquency and prepayment. We prove that the asymptotically optimal portfolio converges to the optimal portfolio as the portfolio size grows large. Numerical case studies using actual loan data demonstrate its computational efficiency. The asymptotically optimal portfolio’s computational cost does not increase with the size of the portfolio. It is typically many orders of magnitude faster than nonlinear integer program solvers while also being highly accurate even for moderate-sized portfolios.

Suggested Citation

  • Justin A. Sirignano & Gerry Tsoukalas & Kay Giesecke, 2016. "Large-Scale Loan Portfolio Selection," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(6), pages 1239-1255, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:64:y:2016:i:6:p:1239-1255
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.2016.1537
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/opre.2016.1537
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/opre.2016.1537?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-147.
    2. Mark B. Wise & Vineer Bhansali, 2002. "Portfolio Allocation to Corporate Bonds with Correlated Defaults," Papers nlin/0205011, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2002.
    3. Duan Li & Xiaoling Sun, 2006. "Nonlinear Integer Programming," International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, Springer, number 978-0-387-32995-6, December.
    4. Dennis R. Capozza & Dick Kazarian & Thomas A. Thomson, 1997. "Mortgage Default in Local Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 25(4), pages 631-655, December.
    5. Agostino Capponi & José Figueroa-López & Andrea Pascucci, 2015. "Dynamic credit investment in partially observed markets," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 891-939, October.
    6. Mencía, Javier, 2012. "Assessing the risk-return trade-off in loan portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1665-1677.
    7. P. Tseng, 2001. "Convergence of a Block Coordinate Descent Method for Nondifferentiable Minimization," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 475-494, June.
    8. B Baesens & T Van Gestel & M Stepanova & D Van den Poel & J Vanthienen, 2005. "Neural network survival analysis for personal loan data," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 56(9), pages 1089-1098, September.
    9. Maria Stepanova & Lyn Thomas, 2002. "Survival Analysis Methods for Personal Loan Data," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 50(2), pages 277-289, April.
    10. David Saunders & Costas Xiouros & Stavros Zenios, 2007. "Credit risk optimization using factor models," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 152(1), pages 49-77, July.
    11. Bastos, João A., 2010. "Forecasting bank loans loss-given-default," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2510-2517, October.
    12. Dimitris Bertsimas & Romy Shioda, 2009. "Algorithm for cardinality-constrained quadratic optimization," Computational Optimization and Applications, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 1-22, May.
    13. Paris, Francesco M., 2005. "Selecting an optimal portfolio of consumer loans by applying the state preference approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 230-241, May.
    14. Kay Giesecke & Baeho Kim & Jack Kim & Gerry Tsoukalas, 2014. "Optimal Credit Swap Portfolios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(9), pages 2291-2307, September.
    15. B. Blog & G. van der Hoek & A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan & G. T. Timmer, 1983. "The Optimal Selection of Small Portfolios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(7), pages 792-798, July.
    16. Edward I. Altman, 1996. "Corporate Bond and Commercial Loan Portfolio Analysis," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 96-6, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    17. Mark B. Wise & Vineer Bhansali, 2002. "Implications of Correlated Default For Portfolio Allocation To Corporate Bonds," Papers nlin/0209010, arXiv.org.
    18. Jianjun Gao & Duan Li, 2013. "Optimal Cardinality Constrained Portfolio Selection," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 61(3), pages 745-761, June.
    19. Kraft, Holger & Steffensen, Mogens, 2009. "Asset allocation with contagion and explicit bankruptcy procedures," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 147-167, January.
    20. Bennett, Paul, 1984. "Applying portfolio theory to global bank lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 153-169, June.
    21. Pierre Bonami & João Gonçalves, 2012. "Heuristics for convex mixed integer nonlinear programs," Computational Optimization and Applications, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 729-747, March.
    22. Kraft, Holger & Steffensen, Mogens, 2008. "How to invest optimally in corporate bonds: A reduced-form approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 348-385, February.
    23. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    24. J Banasik & J N Crook & L C Thomas, 1999. "Not if but when will borrowers default," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 50(12), pages 1185-1190, December.
    25. Westgaard, Sjur & van der Wijst, Nico, 2001. "Default probabilities in a corporate bank portfolio: A logistic model approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 338-349, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Justin Sirignano & Apaar Sadhwani & Kay Giesecke, 2016. "Deep Learning for Mortgage Risk," Papers 1607.02470, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2018.
    2. Ben Hambly & Nikolaos Kolliopoulos, 2018. "Fast mean-reversion asymptotics for large portfolios of stochastic volatility models," Papers 1811.08808, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2020.
    3. Dimitris Andriosopoulos & Michalis Doumpos & Panos M. Pardalos & Constantin Zopounidis, 2019. "Computational approaches and data analytics in financial services: A literature review," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 70(10), pages 1581-1599, October.
    4. Guangxin Jiang & L. Jeff Hong & Barry L. Nelson, 2020. "Online Risk Monitoring Using Offline Simulation," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 32(2), pages 356-375, April.
    5. Oliver Blümke, 2020. "Estimating the probability of default for no‐default and low‐default portfolios," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 69(1), pages 89-107, January.
    6. Ben Hambly & Nikolaos Kolliopoulos, 2019. "Stochastic PDEs for large portfolios with general mean-reverting volatility processes," Papers 1906.05898, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    7. Samim Ghamami & Paul Glasserman, 2019. "Submodular Risk Allocation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(10), pages 4656-4675, October.
    8. David Pla-Santamaria & Mila Bravo & Javier Reig-Mullor & Francisco Salas-Molina, 2021. "A multicriteria approach to manage credit risk under strict uncertainty," TOP: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 29(2), pages 494-523, July.
    9. Doumpos, Michalis & Zopounidis, Constantin & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Platanakis, Emmanouil & Zhang, Wenke, 2023. "Operational research and artificial intelligence methods in banking," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(1), pages 1-16.
    10. Dawen Yan & Xiaohui Zhang & Mingzheng Wang, 2021. "A robust bank asset allocation model integrating credit-rating migration risk and capital adequacy ratio regulations," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 659-710, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Justin Sirignano & Kay Giesecke, 2019. "Risk Analysis for Large Pools of Loans," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(1), pages 107-121, January.
    2. Agostino Capponi & Christoph Frei, 2017. "Systemic Influences on Optimal Equity-Credit Investment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(8), pages 2756-2771, August.
    3. Li, Zhiyong & Li, Aimin & Bellotti, Anthony & Yao, Xiao, 2023. "The profitability of online loans: A competing risks analysis on default and prepayment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(2), pages 968-985.
    4. Xiaojin Zheng & Xiaoling Sun & Duan Li, 2014. "Improving the Performance of MIQP Solvers for Quadratic Programs with Cardinality and Minimum Threshold Constraints: A Semidefinite Program Approach," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 26(4), pages 690-703, November.
    5. Thi Mai Luong, 2020. "Selection Effects of Lender and Borrower Choices on Risk Measurement, Management and Prudential Regulation," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 3-2020.
    6. Xiaojin Zheng & Xiaoling Sun & Duan Li & Jie Sun, 2014. "Successive convex approximations to cardinality-constrained convex programs: a piecewise-linear DC approach," Computational Optimization and Applications, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 379-397, October.
    7. Lijun Bo & Agostino Capponi, 2017. "Optimal Credit Investment with Borrowing Costs," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 42(2), pages 546-575, May.
    8. Li, Aimin & Li, Zhiyong & Bellotti, Anthony, 2023. "Predicting loss given default of unsecured consumer loans with time-varying survival scores," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    9. Aneta Ptak-Chmielewska & Paweł Kopciuszewski & Anna Matuszyk, 2023. "Application of the kNN-Based Method and Survival Approach in Estimating Loss Given Default for Unresolved Cases," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-14, February.
    10. Jianjun Gao & Duan Li, 2013. "Optimal Cardinality Constrained Portfolio Selection," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 61(3), pages 745-761, June.
    11. Fabian Dickmann & Nikolaus Schweizer, 2014. "Faster Comparison of Stopping Times by Nested Conditional Monte Carlo," Papers 1402.0243, arXiv.org.
    12. Work, James & Hauer, Grant & Luckert, M.K. (Marty), 2018. "What ethanol prices would induce growers to switch from agriculture to poplar in Alberta? A multiple options approach," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 51-62.
    13. Lili Pan & Ziyan Luo & Naihua Xiu, 2017. "Restricted Robinson Constraint Qualification and Optimality for Cardinality-Constrained Cone Programming," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 175(1), pages 104-118, October.
    14. Kathrin Glau & Ricardo Pachon & Christian Potz, 2019. "Speed-up credit exposure calculations for pricing and risk management," Papers 1912.01280, arXiv.org.
    15. Dong, Wenfeng & Kang, Boda, 2019. "Analysis of a multiple year gas sales agreement with make-up, carry-forward and indexation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 76-96.
    16. Pringles, Rolando & Olsina, Fernando & Penizzotto, Franco, 2020. "Valuation of defer and relocation options in photovoltaic generation investments by a stochastic simulation-based method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 846-864.
    17. Marta Biancardi & Giovanni Villani, 2017. "Robust Monte Carlo Method for R&D Real Options Valuation," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 49(3), pages 481-498, March.
    18. Gabriel J Power & Charli D. Tandja M. & Josée Bastien & Philippe Grégoire, 2015. "Measuring infrastructure investment option value," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 49-72, January.
    19. Stentoft, Lars, 2005. "Pricing American options when the underlying asset follows GARCH processes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 576-611, September.
    20. O. Samimi & Z. Mardani & S. Sharafpour & F. Mehrdoust, 2017. "LSM Algorithm for Pricing American Option Under Heston–Hull–White’s Stochastic Volatility Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 50(2), pages 173-187, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:64:y:2016:i:6:p:1239-1255. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.