IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1402.0243.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Faster Comparison of Stopping Times by Nested Conditional Monte Carlo

Author

Listed:
  • Fabian Dickmann
  • Nikolaus Schweizer

Abstract

We show that deliberately introducing a nested simulation stage can lead to significant variance reductions when comparing two stopping times by Monte Carlo. We derive the optimal number of nested simulations and prove that the algorithm is remarkably robust to misspecifications of this number. The method is applied to several problems related to Bermudan/American options. In these applications, our method allows to substantially increase the efficiency of other variance reduction techniques, namely, Quasi-Control Variates and Multilevel Monte Carlo.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabian Dickmann & Nikolaus Schweizer, 2014. "Faster Comparison of Stopping Times by Nested Conditional Monte Carlo," Papers 1402.0243, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1402.0243
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1402.0243
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Leif Andersen & Mark Broadie, 2004. "Primal-Dual Simulation Algorithm for Pricing Multidimensional American Options," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1222-1234, September.
    2. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-147.
    3. Boyle, Phelim & Broadie, Mark & Glasserman, Paul, 1997. "Monte Carlo methods for security pricing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(8-9), pages 1267-1321, June.
    4. Michael B. Gordy & Sandeep Juneja, 2010. "Nested Simulation in Portfolio Risk Measurement," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(10), pages 1833-1848, October.
    5. Paul Glasserman & Philip Heidelberger & Perwez Shahabuddin & Tim Zajic, 1999. "Multilevel Splitting for Estimating Rare Event Probabilities," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 47(4), pages 585-600, August.
    6. Martin B. Haugh & Leonid Kogan, 2004. "Pricing American Options: A Duality Approach," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 52(2), pages 258-270, April.
    7. Denis Belomestny & Fabian Dickmann & Tigran Nagapetyan, 2013. "Pricing American options via multi-level approximation methods," Papers 1303.1334, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2013.
    8. Youyi Feng & Guillermo Gallego, 1995. "Optimal Starting Times for End-of-Season Sales and Optimal Stopping Times for Promotional Fares," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(8), pages 1371-1391, August.
    9. Denis Belomestny, 2009. "Pricing Bermudan options using nonparametric regression: optimal rates of convergence for lower estimates," Papers 0907.5599, arXiv.org.
    10. Michael B. Giles, 2008. "Multilevel Monte Carlo Path Simulation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(3), pages 607-617, June.
    11. repec:esr:wpaper:rsnote2012/3/1 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. L. C. G. Rogers, 2002. "Monte Carlo valuation of American options," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 271-286, July.
    13. Asmussen, S. & Binswanger, K., 1997. "Simulation of Ruin Probabilities for Subexponential Claims," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 297-318, November.
    14. Denis Belomestny, 2011. "Pricing Bermudan options by nonparametric regression: optimal rates of convergence for lower estimates," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 655-683, December.
    15. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11498 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Mark Broadie & Yiping Du & Ciamac C. Moallemi, 2011. "Efficient Risk Estimation via Nested Sequential Simulation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(6), pages 1172-1194, June.
    17. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Denis Belomestny & John Schoenmakers & Fabian Dickmann, 2013. "Multilevel dual approach for pricing American style derivatives," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 717-742, October.
    2. Nan Chen & Yanchu Liu, 2014. "American Option Sensitivities Estimation via a Generalized Infinitesimal Perturbation Analysis Approach," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 62(3), pages 616-632, June.
    3. Denis Belomestny & Grigori Milstein & Vladimir Spokoiny, 2009. "Regression methods in pricing American and Bermudan options using consumption processes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 315-327.
    4. Yi Yang & Jianan Wang & Youhua Chen & Zhiyuan Chen & Yanchu Liu, 2020. "Optimal procurement strategies for contractual assembly systems with fluctuating procurement price," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 291(1), pages 1027-1059, August.
    5. Mark Broadie & Weiwei Shen, 2016. "High-Dimensional Portfolio Optimization With Transaction Costs," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(04), pages 1-49, June.
    6. Denis Belomestny & G. Milstein & John Schoenmakers, 2010. "Sensitivities for Bermudan options by regression methods," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 33(2), pages 117-138, November.
    7. Bradley Sturt, 2021. "A nonparametric algorithm for optimal stopping based on robust optimization," Papers 2103.03300, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    8. Jin, Xing & Li, Xun & Tan, Hwee Huat & Wu, Zhenyu, 2013. "A computationally efficient state-space partitioning approach to pricing high-dimensional American options via dimension reduction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 362-370.
    9. Mark Broadie & Jerome B. Detemple, 2004. "ANNIVERSARY ARTICLE: Option Pricing: Valuation Models and Applications," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1145-1177, September.
    10. Sebastian Becker & Patrick Cheridito & Arnulf Jentzen & Timo Welti, 2019. "Solving high-dimensional optimal stopping problems using deep learning," Papers 1908.01602, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    11. Ravi Kashyap, 2022. "Options as Silver Bullets: Valuation of Term Loans, Inventory Management, Emissions Trading and Insurance Risk Mitigation using Option Theory," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 315(2), pages 1175-1215, August.
    12. Mark Broadie & Menghui Cao, 2008. "Improved lower and upper bound algorithms for pricing American options by simulation," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(8), pages 845-861.
    13. Secomandi, Nicola & Seppi, Duane J., 2014. "Real Options and Merchant Operations of Energy and Other Commodities," Foundations and Trends(R) in Technology, Information and Operations Management, now publishers, vol. 6(3-4), pages 161-331, July.
    14. Denis Belomestny & Christian Bender & John Schoenmakers, 2009. "True Upper Bounds For Bermudan Products Via Non‚ÄźNested Monte Carlo," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 53-71, January.
    15. Ron Kaniel & Stathis Tompaidis & Alexander Zemlianov, 2008. "Efficient Computation of Hedging Parameters for Discretely Exercisable Options," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(4), pages 811-826, August.
    16. Christian Bender & Christian Gaertner & Nikolaus Schweizer, 2016. "Pathwise Iteration for Backward SDEs," Papers 1605.07500, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2016.
    17. Roberto Baviera & Lorenzo Giada, 2013. "A perturbative approach to Bermudan options pricing with applications," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 255-263, January.
    18. Cosma, Antonio & Galluccio, Stefano & Pederzoli, Paola & Scaillet, Olivier, 2020. "Early Exercise Decision in American Options with Dividends, Stochastic Volatility, and Jumps," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(1), pages 331-356, February.
    19. Li, Chenxu & Ye, Yongxin, 2019. "Pricing and Exercising American Options: an Asymptotic Expansion Approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    20. Maximilian Mair & Jan Maruhn, 2013. "On the primal-dual algorithm for callable Bermudan options," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 79-110, April.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1402.0243. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.