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Visible and hidden risk factors for banks

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  • Til Schuermann
  • Kevin J. Stiroh

Abstract

This paper examines the common factors that drive the returns of U.S. bank holding companies from 1997 to 2005. We compare a range of market models from a basic one-factor model to a nine-factor model that includes the standard Fama-French factors and additional factors thought to be particularly relevant for banks such as interest and credit variables. We show that the market factor clearly dominates in explaining bank returns, followed by the Fama-French factors. The bank-specific factors are not informative, particularly for the largest banks, which take advantage of protection in the form of interest rate and credit derivatives. Even in our broadest model, however, considerable residual variation remains, with the mean pairwise correlation of residuals for the largest banks near 0.25. This finding suggests that important hidden factors remain. A principal component analysis shows that this residual variance is relatively diffuse, although the largest banks do tend to load in the same direction on the first component. Relative to the returns of large firms in other sectors, bank returns are relatively well explained with standard risk factors, and both the residual correlation and degree of factor loading agreement are not particularly large. These results have clear implications both for public policymakers seeking to quantify those shared bank exposures that create systemic risk and to portfolio managers seeking to devise optimal diversification strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Til Schuermann & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2006. "Visible and hidden risk factors for banks," Staff Reports 252, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:252
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    Cited by:

    1. Baek, Seungho & Bilson, John F.O., 2015. "Size and value risk in financial firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 295-326.
    2. Zedginidze Zviad, 2012. "Linking Macroeconomic Dynamics to Georgian Credit Portfolio Risk," EERC Working Paper Series 12/07e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    3. Adrian, Tobias & Friedman, Evan & Muir, Tyler, 2015. "The Cost of Capital of the Financial Sector," CEPR Discussion Papers 11031, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Jiménez, Gabriel & Mencía, Javier, 2009. "Modelling the distribution of credit losses with observable and latent factors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 235-253, March.
    5. Baele, Lieven & De Bruyckere, Valerie & De Jonghe, Olivier & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2015. "Model uncertainty and systematic risk in US banking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 49-66.
    6. Mun, Kyung-Chun, 2016. "Hedging bank market risk with futures and forwards," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 112-125.
    7. repec:eee:quaeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:302-313 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Joel F. Houston & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2006. "Three decades of financial sector risk," Staff Reports 248, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    9. Kevin Stiroh, 2006. "New Evidence on the Determinants of Bank Risk," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 30(3), pages 237-263, December.
    10. Friesen, Geoffrey C. & Swift, Christopher, 2009. "Overreaction in the thrift IPO aftermarket," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1285-1298, July.
    11. Foos, Daniel & Lütkebohmert, Eva & Markovych, Mariia & Pliszka, Kamil, 2017. "Euro area banks' interest rate risk exposure to level, slope and curvature swings in the yield curve," Discussion Papers 24/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Riccardo Lisa & Stefano Zedda & Francesco Vallascas & Francesca Campolongo & Massimo Marchesi, 2011. "Modelling Deposit Insurance Scheme Losses in a Basel 2 Framework," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 123-141, December.
    13. Vander Vennet Rudi & De Jonghe Olivier & De Bruyckere Valerie & Baele Lieven, 2011. "Enhancing Bank Transparency: Risk Ineffciency as a Market Disciplining Mechanism," 2011 Meeting Papers 559, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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    Keywords

    Bank holding companies ; Bank profits ; Rate of return ; Bank investments;

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