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Modelling the distribution of credit losses with observable and latent factors

Listed author(s):
  • Jiménez, Gabriel
  • Mencía, Javier

This paper proposes a dynamic model to estimate the credit loss distribution of the aggregate portfolio of loans granted in a banking system. We consider a sectoral approach distinguishing between corporates and households. The evolution of their default frequencies and the size of the loans portfolio are expressed as functions of macroeconomic conditions as well as unobservable credit risk factors, which capture contagion effects between sectors. In addition, we model the distributions of the Exposures at Default and the Losses Given Default. We apply our framework to the Spanish banking system, where we find that sectoral default frequencies are not only affected by economic cycles but also by a persistent latent factor. Finally, we identify the riskier sectors, perform stress tests and compare the relative risk of small and large institutions.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.

Volume (Year): 16 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 235-253

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Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:16:y:2009:i:2:p:235-253
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin

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  3. Edward Altman & Andrea Resti & Andrea Sironi, 2004. "Default Recovery Rates in Credit Risk Modelling: A Review of the Literature and Empirical Evidence," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 33(2), pages 183-208, 07.
  4. Fama, Eugene F., 1986. "Term premiums and default premiums in money markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 175-196, September.
  5. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August.
  6. C. A.E. Goodhart, 2005. "Financial Regulation, Credit Risk and Financial Stability," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 192(1), pages 118-127, April.
  7. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-248, April.
  8. Alfredo Martín-Oliver & Vicente Salas-Fumás & Jesus Saurina, 2007. "A Test of the Law of One Price in Retail Banking," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 2021-2040, December.
  9. Bruche, Max & González-Aguado, Carlos, 2010. "Recovery rates, default probabilities, and the credit cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 754-764, April.
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  12. Jimenez, Gabriel & Saurina, Jesus, 2004. "Collateral, type of lender and relationship banking as determinants of credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 2191-2212, September.
  13. Mardi Dungey & Vance L Martin & Adrian R Pagan, 2000. "A multivariate latent factor decomposition of international bond yield spreads," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 697-715.
  14. Rosenberg, Joshua V. & Schuermann, Til, 2006. "A general approach to integrated risk management with skewed, fat-tailed risks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 569-614, March.
  15. Demchuk, Andriy & Gibson, Rajna, 2006. "Stock Market Performance and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(04), pages 863-887, December.
  16. Jimenez, Gabriel & Salas, Vicente & Saurina, Jesus, 2006. "Determinants of collateral," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 255-281, August.
  17. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 1985. "Testing Linear and Loglinear Regressions against Box-Cox Alternatives," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 499-517, August.
  18. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Borag[caron]an Aruoba, S., 2006. "The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 309-338.
  19. Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 2004. "Cyclical implications of the Basel II capital standards," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 18-31.
  20. Miroslav Misina & David Tessier & Shubhasis Dey, 2006. "Stress Testing the Corporate Loans Portfolio of the Canadian Banking Sector," Staff Working Papers 06-47, Bank of Canada.
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  22. Til Schuermann & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2006. "Visible and hidden risk factors for banks," Staff Reports 252, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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