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Inflation expectations spillovers between the United States and euro area

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  • Netšunajev, Aleksei
  • Winkelmann, Lars

Abstract

We quantify spillovers of inflation expectations between the United States (US) and Euro Area (EA) based on break-even inflation (BEI) rates. In contrast to previous studies, we model US and EA BEI rates jointly in a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. The SVAR approach allows to identify US and EA specific inflation expectations shocks. By modeling the heteroscedasticity of the data, we are able to test the identifying restrictions of structural shocks and analyze time-varying spillovers. Adjusted for BEI risk premia, our main result suggests that spillovers of inflation expectations increase during times of macroeconomic stress. We document a significant impact of the European sovereign debt crisis on US expectations. The finding contributes to the discussion about a weakening of inflation control by national central banks and speaks in favor of internationally coordinated policy actions, especially during crisis times.

Suggested Citation

  • Netšunajev, Aleksei & Winkelmann, Lars, 2014. "Inflation expectations spillovers between the United States and euro area," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2014-023, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2014-023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International transmissions; break-even inflation; credibility of monetary policy; structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) analysis; identification through heteroskedasticity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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