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The Real Term Premium in a Stationary Economy with Segmented Asset Markets

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Abstract

This article proposes a general equilibrium model to explain the positive and sizable term premia implied by the data. The authors introduce a slow mean-reverting process of consumption growth and a segmented asset-market mechanism with heterogeneous trading technologies into an otherwise standard heterogeneous agent general equilibrium model. First, the slow mean-reverting consumption growth process implies that the expected consumption growth rate is only slightly countercyclical and the process can exhibit near-zero first-order autocorrelation, as observed in the data. This slight countercyclicality suggests that long-term bonds are risky, and hence the term premia should be positive. Second, the segmented asset-market mechanism amplifies the magnitude of the term premia because aggregate risk is highly concentrated in a small fraction of marginal traders who demand high compensation for taking risk. For sensitivity analysis, the role of each assumption is further investigated by removing each factor one at a time.

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  • YiLi Chien & Junsang Lee, 2019. "The Real Term Premium in a Stationary Economy with Segmented Asset Markets," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 101(2), pages 115-134.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:00117
    DOI: 10.20955/r.101.115-34
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    1. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2012. "The Bond Premium in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 105-143, January.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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