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Turkiye�de Piyasa Gostergelerinden Para Politikasi Beklentilerinin Olculmesi

Author

Listed:
  • Harun Alp
  • Hakan Kara
  • Gursu Keles
  • Refet Gurkaynak
  • Musa Orak

Abstract

Bu calismanin amaci, Turkiye�de hangi piyasa aracinin para politikasi kararlarina iliskin beklentileri daha iyi yansittigi sorusuna yanit aramaktir. Bu amacla, cesitli piyasa araclari ve yontemler kullanilarak para politikasi faizi beklentileri hesaplanmis ve degiskenlerin para politikasi kararlarini tahmin etme gucleri Temmuz 2006-Ekim 2009 donemi icin karsilastirilmistir. Ampirik sonuclar, para politikasi kararlarini en iyi tahmin etme gucune sahip olan aracin bir hafta vadeli Turk Lirasi Bankalararasi Alis Orani (TRLIBID) oldugunu gostermistir.

Suggested Citation

  • Harun Alp & Hakan Kara & Gursu Keles & Refet Gurkaynak & Musa Orak, 2010. "Turkiye�de Piyasa Gostergelerinden Para Politikasi Beklentilerinin Olculmesi," Working Papers 1011, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1011
    as

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    File URL: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Research/Working+Paperss/2010/10-11
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Faust, Jon & Swanson, Eric T. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2004. "Identifying VARS based on high frequency futures data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1107-1131, September.
    2. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    3. Gurkaynak, Refet S. & Sack, Brian T. & Swanson, Eric P., 2007. "Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 201-212, April.
    4. Zelal Aktas & Harun Alp & Refet Gurkaynak & Mehtap Kesriyeli & Musa Orak, 2008. "Turkiye�de Para Politikasinin Aktarimi:Para Politikasinin Mali Piyasalara Etkisi," Working Papers 0811, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    5. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
    6. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense? A Reply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 943-948, November.
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    8. Monika Piazzesi, 2002. "The Fed and Interest Rates - A High-Frequency Identification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 90-95, May.
    9. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 907-931, November.
    10. Brunner, Allan D, 2000. "On the Derivation of Monetary Policy Shocks: Should We Throw the VAR Out with the Bath Water?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(2), pages 254-279, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kilinc, Mustafa & Tunc, Cengiz, 2019. "The asymmetric effects of monetary policy on economic activity in Turkey," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 505-528.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Para politikasi; politika faiz orani beklentileri; piyasa bazli beklenti olcumu;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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