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Turkiye’de Piyasa Gostergelerinden Para Politikasi Beklentilerinin Olculmesi

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Harun Alp
  • Hakan Kara
  • Gursu Keles
  • Refet Gurkaynak
  • Musa Orak

Abstract

Bu calismanin amaci, Turkiye’de hangi piyasa aracinin para politikasi kararlarina iliskin beklentileri daha iyi yansittigi sorusuna yanit aramaktir. Bu amacla, cesitli piyasa araclari ve yontemler kullanilarak para politikasi faizi beklentileri hesaplanmis ve degiskenlerin para politikasi kararlarini tahmin etme gucleri Temmuz 2006-Ekim 2009 donemi icin karsilastirilmistir. Ampirik sonuclar, para politikasi kararlarini en iyi tahmin etme gucune sahip olan aracin bir hafta vadeli Turk Lirasi Bankalararasi Alis Orani (TRLIBID) oldugunu gostermistir.

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File URL: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/TCMB+EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/PUBLICATIONS/Research/Working+Paperss/2010/10-11
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Paper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series Working Papers with number 1011.

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Date of creation: 2010
Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1011
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Keywords: Para politikasi; politika faiz orani beklentileri; piyasa bazli beklenti olcumu;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
  • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
  • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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  1. Gurkaynak, Refet S. & Sack, Brian T. & Swanson, Eric P., 2007. "Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 201-212, April.
  2. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
  3. Faust, Jon & Swanson, Eric T. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2004. "Identifying VARS based on high frequency futures data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1107-1131, September.
  4. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
  5. Monika Piazzesi, 2002. "The Fed and Interest Rates - A High-Frequency Identification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 90-95, May.
  6. Zelal AKTAŞ & Harun ALP & Refet GÜRKAYNAK & Mehtap KESRİYELİ & Musa ORAK, 2009. "Türkiye'de para politikasının aktarımı: Para politikasının mali piyasalara etkisi," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 24(278), pages 9-24.
  7. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 907-931, November.
  8. William Poole & Robert Rasche, 2000. "Perfecting the Market's Knowledge of Monetary Policy," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 255-298, December.
  9. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense? A Reply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 943-948, November.
  10. Brunner, Allan D, 2000. "On the Derivation of Monetary Policy Shocks: Should We Throw the VAR Out with the Bath Water?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(2), pages 254-279, May.
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Cited by:

  1. Refet S. GÜRKAYNAK & Zeynep KANTUR & M.Anıl TAŞ & Seçil YILDIRIM-KARAMAN, 2015. "Monetary Policy in Turkey after Central Bank Independence," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 30(356), pages 09-38.

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