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Quantitative Easing and Safe Asset Scarcity: Evidence from International Bond Safety Premia

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  • Jens H. E. Christensen
  • Nikola Mirkov
  • Xin Zhang

Abstract

Through large-scale asset purchases, widely known as quantitative easing (QE), central banks around the world have reduced the available supply of safe assets. We examine the effects of the European Central Bank’s asset purchases in the 2015-2021 period on an international panel of bond safety premia from four highly rated countries: Denmark, Germany, Sweden, and Switzerland. We find statistically significant negative effects for all four countries. This points to a novel and important international spillover channel of QE programs to bond safety premia that operates via changes in the perceived relative scarcity of safe assets across international bond markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Jens H. E. Christensen & Nikola Mirkov & Xin Zhang, 2023. "Quantitative Easing and Safe Asset Scarcity: Evidence from International Bond Safety Premia," Working Paper Series 2023-23, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:96602
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2023-23
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(5), pages 933-949, December.
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    3. Hohberger, Stefan & Priftis, Romanos & Vogel, Lukas, 2019. "The macroeconomic effects of quantitative easing in the euro area: Evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    4. De Santis, Roberto A., 2020. "Impact of the Asset Purchase Programme on euro area government bond yields using market news," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 192-209.
    5. Jens H. E. Christensen & Signe Krogstrup, 2022. "A Portfolio Model of Quantitative Easing," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(04), pages 1-39, December.
    6. Carlo Altavilla & Giacomo Carboni & Roberto Motto, 2021. "Asset Purchase Programs and Financial Markets: Lessons from the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(70), pages 1-48, October.
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    8. D’Amico, Stefania & King, Thomas B., 2013. "Flow and stock effects of large-scale treasury purchases: Evidence on the importance of local supply," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 425-448.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    term structures; convenience yields; Conventional and unconventional US monetary policy; European Central Bank (ECB);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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