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Unité et pluralité du cycle européen

Author

Listed:
  • Guilhem Bentoglio
  • Jacky Fayolle
  • Matthieu Lemoine

Abstract

This article estimates inobservable components models for studying the division of the zone euro GDP between trends and cycles, using quarterly data covering all the decades 1960 to 1990. Three approaches are confronted: they respectively identify the European cycles starting from the aggregate GDP of the zone euro; from the aggregation of the national cycles; finally, from multivariate model, which gathers the whole of the zone euro countries. Convergence between the results of these approaches is satisfactory. But the national cycles are not yet reducible to the common component which shows through in the aggregate cycle of the European GDP. This common and symmetrical component contributes only for one third approximately to the whole of national cycles. The definition of a balanced policy mix should take into account the persistent plurality of the European cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Guilhem Bentoglio & Jacky Fayolle & Matthieu Lemoine, 2001. "Unité et pluralité du cycle européen," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 78(3), pages 9-73.
  • Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_078_0009
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nyblom, Jukka & Harvey, Andrew, 2000. "Tests Of Common Stochastic Trends," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(02), pages 176-199, April.
    2. Blackburn, Keith & Ravn, Morten O, 1992. "Business Cycles in the United Kingdom: Facts and Fictions," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 59(236), pages 383-401, November.
    3. Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2001. "Federal policies and local economies: Europe and the US," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 109-134, January.
    4. Jacky Fayolle & Alexandre Mathis, 1993. "Tendances et cycles stylisés dans les pays du G7 - Une approche stochastique," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 47(1), pages 201-233.
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    Cited by:

    1. Agresti, Anna Maria & Mojon, Benoît, 2001. "Some stylised facts on the euro area business cycle," Working Paper Series 0095, European Central Bank.
    2. Guilhem Bentoglio & Jacky Fayolle & Matthieu Lemoine, 2002. "La croissance européenne perturbée par un cycle de courte période," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 359(1), pages 83-100.
    3. Matthieu Lemoine & Florian Pelgrin, 2003. "Introduction aux modèles espace-état et au filtre de Kalman," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 86(3), pages 203-229.
    4. Jérôme Creel & Jacky Fayolle, 2002. "La Banque centrale et l'Union monétaire européennes : les tribulations de la crédibilité," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 211-244.
    5. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Ibourk, Aomar, 2005. "Le Cycle des affaires dans les pays MENA Une Application du Filtre Hodrick-Prescott
      [The Business Cycle in MENA Application of a Hodrick-Prescott Filter]
      ," MPRA Paper 46115, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2129 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Fabrice Lenglart & Fabien Toutlemonde, 2002. "Mieux appréhender le climat conjoncturel de la zone euro," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 359(1), pages 69-81.
    8. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2942 is not listed on IDEAS

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