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Unité et pluralité du cycle européen

  • Guilhem Bentoglio
  • Jacky Fayolle
  • Matthieu Lemoine

This article estimates inobservable components models for studying the division of the zone euro GDP between trends and cycles, using quarterly data covering all the decades 1960 to 1990. Three approaches are confronted: they respectively identify the European cycles starting from the aggregate GDP of the zone euro; from the aggregation of the national cycles; finally, from multivariate model, which gathers the whole of the zone euro countries. Convergence between the results of these approaches is satisfactory. But the national cycles are not yet reducible to the common component which shows through in the aggregate cycle of the European GDP. This common and symmetrical component contributes only for one third approximately to the whole of national cycles. The definition of a balanced policy mix should take into account the persistent plurality of the European cycles.

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Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): 78 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 9-73

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Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_078_0009
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  1. repec:cai:reofsp:reof_p1993_47n1_0201 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Nyblom, Jukka & Harvey, Andrew, 1999. "Tests of Common Stochastic Trends," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9902, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  3. Alexandre Mathis & Jacky Fayolle, 1993. "Tendances et cycles stylisés dans les pays du G7 - Une approche stochastique," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 47(1), pages 201-233.
  4. Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2001. "Federal policies and local economies: Europe and the U.S," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10141, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  5. Blackburn, Keith & Ravn, Morten O, 1992. "Business Cycles in the United Kingdom: Facts and Fictions," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 59(236), pages 383-401, November.
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