Non-monotonic long memory dynamics in black-market premia
The dynamic response of Black market premia to domestic shocks is an important issue in the design and implementation of stabilization and reform programs. We use a vector autoregressive fractionally integrated model to provide new evidence on the dynamics of the official and Black market exchange rates. We show that the official and Black market exchange rates in Hungary are cointegrated with a negative fractional order ofintegration in the cointegrating residuals. The new empirical finding means that the cointegrating residuals are positively autocorrelated in the short run due to autoregressive dynamics, but are negatively autocorrelated in the long run. The rich and complex dynamics of the premia suggests the existence of what we call long memory non-monotonicity.
|Date of creation:||1995|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166|
Web page: http://www.stlouisfed.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cheung, Yin-Wong, 1993. "Long Memory in Foreign-Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 93-101, January.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015.
"Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-276, March.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "A Fractional Cointegration Analysis of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 103-112, January.
- Rudiger Dornbusch & Daniel Valente Dantas & Clarice Pechman & Roberto de Rezende Rocha & Demetrio SimÅes, 1983. "The Black Market for Dollars in Brazil," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 98(1), pages 25-40.
- Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-228, August.
- Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1988.
"Long memory and persistence in aggregate output,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
7, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Kamin, Steven B., 1993. "Devaluation, exchange controls, and black markets for foreign exchange in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 151-169, February.
- Agenor, P.R., 1992. "Parallel Currency Markets in Developing Countries : Theory, Evidence, and Policy Implications," Princeton Studies in International Economics 188, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1995-003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anna Xiao)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.