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Are European bond markets overshooting?

Author

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  • Christophe Blot

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jérôme Creel
  • Paul Hubert
  • Fabien Labondance

Abstract

The recent rise in Eurozone long-term interest rates could jeopardize the on-going recovery if interest rates went beyond what the fundamentals require. We investigate possible overshooting after identifying the main determinants of long-term interest rates in the Eurozone and in some of its Member States since 1999. We include four categories of fundamentals (macroeconomic, financial, expectations, international). We find that monetary variables, spillovers from US financial markets, expectations and sovereign risks are the main determinants of long-term interest rates in the Eurozone. The empirical model has a very good fit and does not identify recent overshooting. The observed rise since August 2016 is attributed to two factors. The first one is the increase in US long-term interest rates after the reversal in the Fed’s monetary stance. The second factor stems from the political tensions in France, Italy or Spain which generated higher perceived political risk. While the former factor might continue to drive Eurozone interest rates up, the second one might have receded with the results of the French presidential elections and drive interest rates down.
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Suggested Citation

  • Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2017. "Are European bond markets overshooting?," Working Papers hal-01659799, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01659799
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
    2. Sylvain Leduc & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "Does slower growth imply lower interest rates?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Why Are Long-Term Interest Rates So Low?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. John C. Williams, 2003. "The natural rate of interest," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct31.
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    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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