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The Joint Dynamics of U.S. and Euro-area Inflation Rates: Expectations and Time-varying Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Olesya Grishchenko
  • Sarah Mouabbi
  • Jean-Paul Renne

Abstract

We use several U.S. and euro-area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation with time-varying uncertinty. We obtain survey-consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the United States and in the euro area. Our methodology allows us to compute, in closed form, survey-consistent measures of inflation expectations, inflation uncertainty, inflation expectations anchoring, deflation probabilities and U.S. and euro-area inflation co-movements. Our results suggest strong commonalities between inflation dynamics in the two economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Olesya Grishchenko & Sarah Mouabbi & Jean-Paul Renne, 2017. "The Joint Dynamics of U.S. and Euro-area Inflation Rates: Expectations and Time-varying Uncertainty," Working papers 622, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:622
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Lloyd B. Thomas, 1999. "Survey Measures of Expected U.S. Inflation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 125-144, Fall.
    6. Speck, Christian, 2016. "Inflation anchoring in the euro area," Discussion Papers 04/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Jonathan H. Wright, 2011. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1514-1534, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2018. "Lost Inflation?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 18-01, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    2. Grace Taylor & Rod Tyers, 2017. "Secular Stagnation: Determinants and Consequences for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(303), pages 615-650, December.
    3. Buono, Ines & Formai, Sara, 2018. "New evidence on the evolution of the anchoring of inflation expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 39-54.
    4. López-Salido, David & Loria, Francesca, 2024. "Inflation at risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
    5. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Osbat, Chiara, 2017. "Low inflation in the euro area: Causes and consequences," Occasional Paper Series 181, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; surveys of professional forecasters; dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility; term structure of inflation expectations and inflation uncertainty; anchoring of inflation expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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