IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/uwa/wpaper/18-01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Lost Inflation?

Author

Listed:
  • Rod Tyers

    (Business School, University of Western Australia and Research School of Economics, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA), Australian National University)

  • Yixiao Zhou

    (School of Economics and Finance, Curtin Business School, Curtin University)

Abstract

Concern about “lost inflation” has been heightened recently by the apparent inability of central banks in the largest democracies, a decade beyond the GFC, to restore their “safe” CPI inflation ranges. This paper examines the deflationary forces against which monetary policy is now aligned, namely migration, the race to the bottom in capital taxation, and biased technical change, and assesses the consequences looking forward. While inflation rates have edged lower over the past two decades the most important change has been declines in long maturity yields, initially driven by strong growth in high-saving Asia and by redistribution in the advanced economies to high-saving households, and bolstered subsequently by return pessimism due to low growth in measured productivity. Ironically, today’s low rates also stem from conventional monetary policy failure, expanded central bank balance sheets and the resulting global “bond bubble”. Future monetary policy effectiveness as deflationary forces continue will depend in the advanced economies on government interventions to address underlying inequality and financial market “normalisation”.

Suggested Citation

  • Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2018. "Lost Inflation?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 18-01, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwa:wpaper:18-01
    Note: MD5 = 158bab805df2c9491af103329fe3d350
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ecompapers.biz.uwa.edu.au/paper/PDF%20of%20Discussion%20Papers/2018/DP%2018.01_Tyers%20and%20Zhou.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2023. "Automation and inequality with taxes and transfers," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 70(1), pages 68-100, February.
    2. Mr. Romain A Duval & Mr. Kevin C Cheng & Kum Hwa Oh & Richa Saraf, 2014. "Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization: A Reappraisal with Focus on Asia," IMF Working Papers 2014/052, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Rod Tyers, 2016. "China and Global Macroeconomic Interdependence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(11), pages 1674-1702, November.
    4. Markus Knell & Helmut Stix, 2006. "Three decades of money demand studies: differences and similarities," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(7), pages 805-818.
    5. Cristina Constantinescu & Aaditya Mattoo & Michele Ruta, 2020. "The Global Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 34(1), pages 121-142.
    6. Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason, 2010. "Some macroeconomic aspects of global population aging," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 47(1), pages 151-172, March.
    7. Amato, Jeffery D. & Gerlach, Stefan, 2002. "Inflation targeting in emerging market and transition economies: Lessons after a decade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(4-5), pages 781-790, May.
    8. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 1998. "The theoretical and empirical structure of the G-Cubed model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 123-148, January.
    9. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
    10. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2018. "Fertility and savings contractions in China: Long‐run global implications," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(11), pages 3194-3220, November.
    11. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang & Tsun Se Cheong, 2013. "China’s Saving and Global Economic Performance," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 13-20, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    12. Malley, James R. & Muscatelli, V. Anton & Woitek, Ulrich, 2005. "Real business cycles, sticky wages or sticky prices? The impact of technology shocks on US manufacturing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 745-760, April.
    13. Jin, Ye & Li, Hongbin & Wu, Binzhen, 2011. "Income inequality, consumption, and social-status seeking," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 191-204, June.
    14. Etienne Gagnon & Benjamin K. Johannsen & David López-Salido, 2021. "Understanding the New Normal: The Role of Demographics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(2), pages 357-390, June.
    15. Vipin Arora & Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Reconstructing the Savings Glut: The Global Implications of Asian Excess Saving," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 14-24, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    16. Marcel P. Timmer & Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input–Output Database: the Case of Global Automotive Production," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 575-605, August.
    17. O. Grishchenko & S. Mouabbi & J.-P. Renne, 2017. "The Joint Dynamics of U.S. and Euro-area Inflation Rates: Expectations and Time-varying Uncertainty," Working papers 622, Banque de France.
    18. Paul R. Masson & Miguel A. Savastano & Sunil Sharma, 2019. "The Scope for Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Modelling and Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes, chapter 10, pages 331-383, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    19. Jarkko Jaaskela & Thomas Mathews, 2015. "Explaining the Slowdown in Global Trade," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 39-46, September.
    20. Pedro Teles & Ruilin Zhou, 2005. "A stable money demand: Looking for the right monetary aggregate," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 29(Q I), pages 50-63.
    21. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Grace Taylor & Rod Tyers, 2017. "Secular Stagnation: Determinants and Consequences for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(303), pages 615-650, December.
    2. Tyers, Rod, 2015. "International effects of China's rise and transition: Neoclassical and Keynesian perspectives," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-19.
    3. Zhou, Yixiao & Tyers, Rod, 2019. "Automation and inequality in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    4. Rod Tyers, 2016. "China and Global Macroeconomic Interdependence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(11), pages 1674-1702, November.
    5. Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2018. "Automation, Taxes And Transfers With International Rivalry," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 18-07, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    6. Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2023. "Automation and inequality with taxes and transfers," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 70(1), pages 68-100, February.
    7. Meixing Dai & Moise Sidiropoulos, 2005. "Should inflation-targeting central banks care about dynamic instabilities in an open economy?," Ekonomia, Cyprus Economic Society and University of Cyprus, vol. 8(2), pages 125-141, Winter.
    8. Dai, Meixing & Sidiropoulos, Moïse, 2003. "Inflation Targeting, Capital Mobility and Macroeconomic Stability," MPRA Paper 13858, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2005.
    9. Nikola Fabris & Milena Lazić, 2022. "Evaluating the Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary Policy Reaction Function of Advanced and Emerging Market Economies," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 11(2), pages 77-96.
    10. Yixiao ZHOU & Rod TYERS, 2019. "Implications of Automation for Global Migration," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 19-19, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    11. Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2019. "Financial integration and the global effects of China's growth surge," CAMA Working Papers 2019-09, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    12. Rod Tyers, 2014. "Pessimism Shocks in a Model of Global Macroeconomic Interdependence," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 14-28, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    13. Vipul Bhatt & Amr Hosny & N. Kundan Kishor, 2017. "The Dynamic Behaviour of Implicit Inflation Targets for ‘Inflation Targeting Lite’ Economies," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(300), pages 67-88, March.
    14. Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2020. "US–China rivalry: The macro policy choices," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(9), pages 2286-2314, September.
    15. Naoto Osawa, 2006. "Monetary Policy Responses to the Exchange Rate: Empirical Evidence from Three East Asian Inflation-Targeting Countries," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 06-E-14, Bank of Japan.
    16. Warwick McKibbin & Jong-Wha Lee & Inkyo Cheong, 2004. "A dynamic analysis of the Korea-Japan free trade area: simulations with the G-cubed Asia-Pacific model," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 3-32.
    17. Sposi, Michael, 2022. "Demographics and the evolution of global imbalances," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 1-14.
    18. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Helmi, Mohamad Husam & Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Menla Ali, Faek & Akdeniz, Coşkun, 2018. "Monetary policy rules in emerging countries: Is there an augmented nonlinear taylor rule?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 306-319.
    20. corrinne ho & robert n mccauley, 2004. "Living with flexible exchange rates:," International Finance 0411003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Manuel García‐Santana & Josep Pijoan‐Mas & Lucciano Villacorta, 2021. "Investment Demand and Structural Change," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(6), pages 2751-2785, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; productivity; automation; income distribution; tax; transfers; general equilibrium analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D33 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Factor Income Distribution
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uwa:wpaper:18-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sam Tang (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deuwaau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.