Central Bank Forecasts of Policy Interest Rates: An Evaluation of the First Years
In recent years the central banks of Norway and Sweden have published their endogenous policy interest-rate forecasts. In this paper, we evaluate those forecasts alongside policy-rate expectations inferred from market pricing. We find that for both economies there are only small differences in relative forecasting precision between the central bank and market-implied measures. However, both types of forecast fail tests for unbiasedness and efficiency at longer horizons.
|Date of creation:||22 Jan 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 46-(0)8-453 59 00
Fax: 46-(0)8-453 59 80
Web page: http://www.konj.se/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Url, Thomas, 1996. "Internationalists, Regionalists, or Eurocentrists," Working Paper 51, National Institute of Economic Research.
- Baghestani, Hamid, 2008. "Federal Reserve versus private information: Who is the best unemployment rate predictor," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 101-110.
- Eriksson, Kimmo & Karlander, Johan & Öller, Lars-Erik, 1997.
"Hierarchical Assignments: Stability and Fairness,"
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
201, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Barot, Bharat & Yang, Zan, 2002. "House Prices and Housing Investment in Sweden and the United Kingdom: Econometric Analysis for the Period 1970-1998," Working Paper 80, National Institute of Economic Research.
- Gren, Ing-Marie, 2003. "Monetary Green Accounting and Ecosystem Services," Working Paper 86, National Institute of Economic Research.
- Huhtala, Anni & Samakovlis, Eva, 2003. "Green Accounting, Air Pollution and Health," Working Paper 82, National Institute of Economic Research.
- Öller, Lars-Erik & Barot, Bharat, 1999. "Comparing the Accuracy of European GDP Forecasts," Working Paper 64, National Institute of Economic Research.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:nierwp:0128. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Henrik Hellström)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.