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Interpreting Wage Bargaining Norms

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  • Vartiainen, Juhana

    (National Institute of Economic Research)

Abstract

From the mid-1990s onwards, Swedish wage bargaining has been characterised by informal co-ordination of the wage claims of big unions and bargaining cartels. In particular, it has been understood that the manufacturing sector should lead by first agreeing on a pay increase, whereafter the service sector and public sector unions choose a similar increase. We analyse his setup with two possible theoretical interpretations: (i) the manufacturing sector as a tackelberg leader and (ii) a normative role for the manufacturing sector’s pay increase, upported either by unmodelled social pressure or a modeled loss aversion (envy) of the heltered sector unions. The conclusion of the analysis is that the normative or leading role of one sector – in the Swedish case the manufacturing sector – can potentially bring big benefits for employment and output. Generalising an idea suggested by Lars Calmfors and Anna Larsson, our analysis also generates a rudimentary theory of why the wage increase norm sometimes binds and sometimes not. A comparison of the model predictions and the observed outcomes of the last five wage bargaining rounds in Sweden suggests that the model is generally consistent with the empirical observations: wage moderation and norm observance are stronger when the manufacturing industry’s initial relative wage is low.

Suggested Citation

  • Vartiainen, Juhana, 2010. "Interpreting Wage Bargaining Norms," Working Papers 116, National Institute of Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:nierwp:0116
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Calmfors, Lars & Larsson, Anna, 2009. "Pattern Bargaining and Wage Leadership in a Small Open Economy," Seminar Papers 760, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    2. P�r Österholm, 2014. "Survey data and short-term forecasts of Swedish GDP growth," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 135-139, January.
    3. Österholm, Pär, 2013. "Forecasting Business Investment in the Short Term Using Survey Data," Working Papers 131, National Institute of Economic Research.
    4. Jan-Erik Antipin & Farid Jimmy Boumediene & Pär Österholm, 2014. "On the Usefulness of Constant Gain Least Squares when Forecasting the Unemployment Rate," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 60(4), pages 315-336.
    5. Lars Calmfors & Anna Larsson Seim, 2013. "Pattern Bargaining and Wage Leadership in a Small Open Economy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 115(1), pages 109-140, January.
    6. Meredith Beechey & Pär Österholm, 2014. "Central Bank Forecasts of Policy Interest Rates: An Evaluation of the First Years," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 43(1), pages 63-78, February.
    7. Östblom, Göran & Ljunggren Söderman, Maria & Sjöström, Magnus, 2010. "Analysing future solid waste generation - Soft linking a model of waste management with a CGE-model for Sweden," Working Papers 118, National Institute of Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    wage bargaining; bargaining co-ordination;

    JEL classification:

    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J52 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Dispute Resolution: Strikes, Arbitration, and Mediation

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