Policy Rate Decisions and Unbiased Parameter Estimation in Conventionally Estimated Monetary Policy Rules
The use of estimated policy rules has been on the rise over the past few decades as central banks have increasingly relied on them as policy benchmarks. While simple, conventionally estimated rules have proven insightful, their value is generally seen to depend, among other things, on the ability of the benchmark to accurately reflect the policy environment and on the relevance of the econometric assumptions behind the estimation method. This paper addresses a potential source of econometric bias that might naturally arise and adversely affect the accuracy of conventionally estimated policy rules as benchmarks. In particular, the discrete nature of the policy rate setting process at central banks leaves open the possibility that observed policy rate changes may include significant rounding errors. If so, parameter estimates using conventional econometric methods could be seriously biased; technically, this is an example of a censoring bias. To address this concern, the paper offers a new method for estimating monetary policy rules and demonstrates the ability of the resulting bias-adjusted policy rules to outperform conventionally estimated ones in characterizing the policy environments in the cases of the Czech Republic and the United States.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 00420 2 2442 1111
Fax: 00420 2 2421 8522
Web page: http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_intro/Email:
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1985.
"The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
1669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mankiw, N Gregory & Miron, Jeffrey A, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(2), pages 211-28, May.
- J. A. Hausman, 1976.
"Specification Tests in Econometrics,"
185, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1995.
"Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure,"
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
95-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April.
- Goodfriend, Marvin, 1991.
"Interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy,"
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,
Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 7-30, January.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001.
"Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia,"
Working Paper Series
2001-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
- Choi, Woon Gyu, 1999. "Estimating the Discount Rate Policy Reaction Function of the Monetary Authority," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 379-401, July-Aug..
- S Derlind, Paul & S Derstr M, Ulf & Vredin, Anders, 2005. "Dynamic Taylor Rules And The Predictability Of Interest Rates," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(03), pages 412-428, June.
- Hakkio, Craig S. & Pearce, Douglas K., 1992. "Discount rate policy under alternative operating procedures: An empirical investigation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 55-72.
- Söderlind, Paul & Söderström, Ulf & Vredin, Anders, 2003.
"Taylor Rules and the Predictability of Interest Rates,"
Working Paper Series
147, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Söderlind, Paul & Söderström, Ulf & Vredin, Anders, 2003. "Taylor Rules and the Predictability of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 3934, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2000.
"Nominal Income Targeting in an Open-Economy Optimizing Model,"
NBER Working Papers
6675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "Nominal income targeting in an open-economy optimizing model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 553-578, June.
- McCallum, B.T. & Nelson, E., 1998. "Nominal Income Targeting in an Open-Economy Optimizing Model," Papers 644, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 1998. "Nominal Income Targeting in an Open-Economy Optimizing Model," Seminar Papers 644, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Feinman, Joshua N, 1993. "Estimating the Open Market Desk's Daily Reaction Function," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 231-47, May.
- Kevin J. Lansing, 2002. "Real-time estimation of trend output and the illusion of interest rate smoothing," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 17-34.
- Alex Cukierman, 1989. "Why does the Fed smooth interest rates?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pages 111-157.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2008/2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jan Babecky)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.