U.S. Treasury Auction Yields Before and During Quantitative Easing: Market Factors vs.Auction Specific Factors
We construct a dataset for every U.S. Treasury auction from 2003 to 2012. We find that market factors known before the auction -- FedFunds rate, S&P, VIX -- are all significant for the auction high-yield, but the relationships differ before vs. during QE and between Bond and Bills auctions. Auction-specific innovations matter for the auction high-yield. Bills auctions have a forecastable component based on information from the previous auction of that maturity. Bidder types may differ systematically. Indirect bidders in the Bond auctions may bid relatively ‘low’ compared to the average bid and Primary Dealers may bid ‘high’. These relationships differ before vs. during QE. These results suggest that quantitative easing implemented in the secondary market has affected the auction market for U.S. Treasury securities.
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