Predicting Recessions Using the Yield Curve: The Role of the Stance of Monetary Policy
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References listed on IDEAS
- Arturo Estrella & Mary R. Trubin, 2006. "The yield curve as a leading indicator: some practical issues," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 12(Jul).
- Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991.
"The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
- Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989. "The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity," Research Paper 8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Williams, John C., 2009.
"Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 492-503.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2007. "Forecasting recessions: the puzzle of the enduring power of the yield curve," Working Paper Series 2007-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, revised 2007.
More about this item
Keywordsterm spread; yield curve inversion; recession probabilities;
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
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