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Finding normal: natural rates and policy prescriptions

Author

Listed:
  • Mary C. Daly
  • Fernanda Nechio
  • Benjamin Pyle

Abstract

Over the past several years, the Federal Open Market Committee?s longer-run forecasts of the short-term interest rate and unemployment rate have steadily declined. These forecasts reflect the Committee?s views about the levels of the policy interest rate and unemployment rate that will eventually prevail when the economy returns to normal. A simple monetary policy rule illustrates how the reductions in these forecasts can imply a lower projected path for the policy rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Mary C. Daly & Fernanda Nechio & Benjamin Pyle, 2015. "Finding normal: natural rates and policy prescriptions," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:00062
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Sylvain Leduc & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "Does slower growth imply lower interest rates?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Cúrdia, Vasco & Ferrero, Andrea & Ng, Ging Cee & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2015. "Has U.S. monetary policy tracked the efficient interest rate?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 72-83.
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